Over the weekend, Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a strong gauntlet’s claim and skepticism of Ukraine’s commitment to the ceasefires. All of these ceasefires were announced unilaterally by Moscow. European leaders are following diplomatic efforts closely. They seek to stabilize the crisis caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine while fighting the battle against high prices there and elsewhere. Although French, British, and Canadian leaders such as Emmanuel Macron, Keir Starmer, and Justin Trudeau have all visited Kyiv, their visible presence has underscored the important questions about Putin’s ceasefire claims and what they actually mean for peace.
The Kremlin’s contradictory posture suggests an offensive, nuanced plan. By neither rejecting nor fully accepting the ceasefire proposal, Putin might be trying to place U.S. President Donald Trump and other Western leaders in this position. Putin’s goal is to ameliorate pressure from European states by projecting at least a façade of good-faith interest in a peaceful resolution. In doing so, he takes a shot at preserving his hawkish reputation. This objection is both lame and scary. While European leaders were right in declaring their support for Ukraine in her fight against Russia’s aggression, they may be interpreting his moves incorrectly.
European leaders are meeting in Kyiv today to reinforce their support against the war and its fallout. They understand the immediate challenge of figuring out what it will take to get Putin to the negotiating table. These leaders have a strong moral conviction that Putin really doesn’t want peace. They believe he will not take a month-long ceasefire proposal as a serious offer. Their conversations center on whether this is a long-term war. Should an acceptable outcome continue to prove impossible, the United States will have to re-evaluate its promises of continued aid to Ukraine.
The situation remains highly charged. Putin has roughly two months to continue his military campaign before winter sets in, assuming no ceasefire occurs. Europe’s unified response to the crisis has seen support from over a dozen countries, including notable backing from New Zealand and Canada. Together, this coalition seeks to replace Russian aggression with Ukrainian resourcefulness and creativity with Ukrainian strength.
The danger of manipulation by Putin during any negotiation represents a difficult hurdle. Observers are rightly worried that any truce will be met with a barrage of Russian propaganda and efforts to place blame on Ukraine. Moscow’s violations should be supported by detailed, specific evidence. This will be important both for Ukraine and for European countries to successfully combat likely propaganda and false accusations resulting from any ceasefire deal.
