Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has proposed to work towards holding elections as soon as late October. He estimates the country could be prepared in 60 to 90 days though this is contingent on obtaining security guarantees. It coincides with a growing burden, both at home and abroad, mounting against Zelensky as the war with Russia continues. His approval ratings have fluctuated since the initial surge of support following Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, with recent polls showing a decline from last year’s levels.
Zelensky first won the presidency in April 2019, winning on a wave of popular discontent. Shortly after taking office, he dissolved parliament, creating a brazen new precedent for his rule. As his current term approaches its end in 2024, the need to maintain a sense of legitimacy based on democratic processes only becomes stronger. This urgency is further complicated by former U.S. President Donald Trump’s claims that Zelensky could be using the war to stay in power.
Security Concerns and Legislative Challenges
Zelensky has been adamant that organizing any elections while in a state of war is incredibly difficult. He explained that in the absence of security to ensure them, the logistics of any aspects of voting are still concerning.
“How can this be done under missile attacks on our military. The question is, how will they vote?” – Volodymyr Zelensky
This issue is brought up by others in Ukraine as well, who doubt that elections can be held in such a precarious situation with active conflict. Roman, a local resident, raised practical points regarding the voting process for those at the front lines:
“People in the trenches would somehow have to vote — will ballot boxes be delivered to them in the trenches?” – Roman
Another observer, Serhiy Dubovyk, pointed out that under today’s martial law, elections are banned, adding to the difficulty of any such move by Zelensky.
International Pressure and Strategic Approaches
Zelensky’s answer to overcoming these challenges has been to call on the international community to help guarantee safety to conduct subsequent elections. To that end, he has been very public in calling for military aid from the U.S. and European partners.
“I am asking, and I am now declaring this openly, the United States of America to help me, together with our European colleagues, to ensure security for the elections.” – Volodymyr Zelensky
This shift in focusing on security guarantees fits neatly with growing pressure from Trump to offer concessions in negotiations with Russia. As Zelensky moves through this very complicated landscape, he’s using talks of possible interim ceasefires to strengthen his hand.
Legitimacy and Future Governance
As Ukraine grapples with the implications of potential elections during wartime, the concept of legitimacy remains central to Zelensky’s narrative. Time and again, he has stressed that without legitimacy, the Ukrainian state will succumb to outside forces, especially that of Russia.
“It is about the reputation and legitimacy of the Ukrainian state as it is. Without legitimacy, this state will not survive, because Russia will destroy our reputation, and then we will be a failed state.” – Olha Aivazovska
As for elections, they can only be held in a time of calm, Zelensky claims. This perspective points to a deeper economic and political awakening among Ukrainian leaders: order must precede democracy. Roman reiterated this sentiment, suggesting that elections should be postponed until after hostilities cease:
“It seems to me that we need to finish the war first, and only then hold elections.” – Roman
