Ukraine has been fighting a war with Russia since the latter’s full-scale invasion in 2022. The war has widened, with Russia now occupying almost one-fifth of Ukrainian land. President Volodymyr Zelensky has been adamant about requiring his direct involvement in any discussions with Russia regarding territorial concessions. He expressed this remark as the reality is shifting everyday. This insistence reflects Ukraine’s hard line on not giving up any territory to Russia, even amid increasing pressure on the front lines.
Over the past few weeks, Russian forces have achieved significant progress in the Donetsk Salient, including to the north-east of Dobropilia. Ukraine has tried to paint these advances as the penetrations of small, sporadic groups of Russian forces as opposed to a major, strategic breakthrough. In reply, Ukraine has deployed reinforcements to these affected areas. Their intent is to shore up existing defensive positions and help mitigate the impact of these encroachments.
The conflict has deep historical roots that are still very much present beyond just the clauses on military action today. After all, it was Russian aggressors who, in 2014, had illegally annexed Crimea. This tactical move became a springboard for the large-scale war that broke out in February 2022. Since then, Russia has made its intentions clear. Now its constitution formally cedes control of all four of these little-known, largely partially-occupied provinces of Ukraine to Russia. Taken together, this legal maneuvering is a signal of Russia’s continued intentions to solidify control over additional Ukrainian territory.
Over the past month, President Zelensky has been alarmingly on point. Unfortunately, he is right that conceding any of Ukraine would set the precedent for future Russian incursions. He threatened to make any future negotiation efforts without his presence a waste of time. The European allies of Ukraine are firmly behind this goal. They argue that negotiations must start from the existing line of contact, protecting Ukrainian territory by not conceding to Russian demands.
While the war continues unabated. Russia currently occupies most of the Donbas region, including nearly all of Donetsk and virtually all of Luhansk oblasts. In addition, it has what remains of roughly two-thirds of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. These territorial gains not only illustrate Russia’s military strategy, but the darker implications of its future goals in Ukraine.
The current war has created a confusing landscape where battlefield tactics meet diplomacy in a murky cocktail. To this end, Russia is currently engaged in a concerted effort to re-annex territory. In turn, Ukraine has rejected all ceasefire proposals that involve surrendering any of its territory. This clash of wills underscores the seriousness of the deeply entrenched positions of both countries and adds complexity to the path, if any, toward resolution.
