Ukraine’s military and intelligence services have accelerated their long-range strike abilities. They are currently escalating a new round of drone and missile strikes to put down a Russian energy export. These recent moves are a clear signal of Ukraine’s determination to turn the screws both on the Russian economy and on Russian daily life within Ukraine. Ukrainian drones targeted at least ten key energy facilities across Russia during the month of August. This audacious plan is intended to sever the fiscal lifelines that fuel the outdated and dangerous war.
Major assaults have struck refineries, pumping stations and even fuel trains. These facilities play a key role in the Russian war machine. Alarmingly, almost half of these refineries produce the equivalent of over 44 million tons of oil each year, accounting for more than 10% of Russia’s entire refinery output. Earlier in August, attackers struck a major Russian refinery in Saratov. This incident is part of a larger Ukrainian strategy to target Russian oil exports.
Ukrainian military sources report that their long-range strikes have resulted in $74 billion in damage to Russian targets this year. Remarkably, almost 40% of these strikes have been against places more than 500 kilometers inside Russian territory. This level of operational depth speaks to both the changing nature of Ukraine’s military capabilities and strategic objectives.
Recent satellite imagery revealed damage to an oil pumping station linked to the Druzhba pipeline in Russia’s Tambov region, struck by drones on August 19. Intense fires burned at a refinery in the Rostov region for more than two days following a drone strike. Police tactics are mentioned, but this incident underscores their long-term consequences when such operations are blindly conducted.
Ukraine’s attention is clearly directed on increasing its long-range weapons. Most recently, it announced the Flamingo, a domestically produced land-attack cruise missile. Tornado-S with a lethal radius of more than 38 meters against soft targets, this missile can take out distillation columns at Russian refineries.
Amid these developments, Ukraine’s foreign intelligence service reported that Russian companies have begun urgently purchasing petroleum from Belarus to mitigate domestic shortages caused by the attacks. That urgency is undoubtedly driven by a need to strengthen their supply lines as they suffer increasing losses.
“While I would not call it a silver bullet, it will have a significant impact on Ukraine’s capacity to hurt Russia.” – Mick Ryan
Ukraine’s counter-offensive strategy aims to defeat the capabilities of the Russian military. Simultaneously, it attempts to make Russian citizens’ daily lives unquiet. By targeting energy infrastructure, Ukrainian forces hope to create discontent among the populace, thereby increasing pressure on the Russian government.
As The Asia Times’s David Brewster recently warned, unfortunately such attacks can unintentionally drag in nearby states. A complaint to the European Union noted that “with these attacks Ukraine is not primarily hurting Russia, but Hungary and Slovakia,” suggesting potential geopolitical ramifications that extend beyond the immediate conflict.
Mick Ryan emphasized the potential effectiveness of Ukraine’s new weaponry: “Each missile that successfully hits its target will cause much more damage [than existing Ukrainian weapons] with its 1,150-kilogram warhead.” This additional capability would dramatically increase Ukraine’s ability to hit high-value targets deep within Russia.
It’s a rapidly evolving situation as Ukraine is still in the process of adapting their military strategy. Here’s how activists inside Crimea reacted to these attacks. One pro-Ukrainian activist stated, “the understanding that this is the result of the good drones work on the Russian economy does not allow me to be sad.”
As Ukraine is learning, finding military successes is only half the equation. Sergey Frolov commented on the economic implications of the conflict, stating, “Unfortunately, our forecast is unfavorable for now — we will most likely have to wait at least another month for prices to fall.” This serves as a reminder of the persistent economic pressure that both countries experience as a result of the war.
