Americans can expect to spend significantly less on fuel in 2025, with projections showing a drop of approximately $115 billion compared to 2022. This notable decrease comes as gas prices are set to continue their downward trend, marking the third consecutive year of reductions. Despite this, the national average price for gas will remain above $2 per gallon throughout the year. GasBuddy, known for its accurate forecasts in past years, predicts that even at its lowest, the national average will only fall to $2.81 by December 2025.
GasBuddy's forecast indicates a national average of $3.22 per gallon for regular gas next year, with the typical household expected to spend around $2,252 on fuel. While the forecast suggests prices will not dip below $3.50 a gallon at any point in 2025, it still represents a significant reduction in consumer fuel expenses.
The United States continues to lead globally in oil production and imported 1.4 million barrels of Canadian crude oil daily last year, with Canada standing as America's primary foreign oil source. President Donald Trump’s energy policies could influence gas prices further, as he has pledged to reduce the cost of living by promoting American energy dominance. However, should a 25% tariff be imposed on Canadian and Mexican oil imports, retail gas prices could increase by 30 to 70 cents per gallon.
"We’re going to get gasoline below $2 a gallon." – Donald Trump
GasBuddy's analysis assumes that a significant tariff will not materialize, thus avoiding a potential surge in fuel prices. Despite Trump's assurances, experts remain skeptical about achieving such low prices without economic turmoil.
"If we saw $1.99 gas, it would be because of an economic calamity, not something Americans would cheer." – Patrick De Haan
Patrick De Haan, a senior petroleum analyst at GasBuddy, points out that Trump's unpredictable nature can disrupt market expectations and complicate price forecasting.
"Trump is a bit of a wildcard. He tends to destabilize the status quo and that increases risk and makes it harder to predict prices," – Patrick De Haan
Amidst political uncertainties, analysts stress that economic factors will primarily dictate the energy sector's trajectory.
"This is why economics, not politics, will drive the energy sector," – Rob Thummel
A potential trade war could also affect fuel demand, potentially pushing prices lower. As global economic conditions influence oil markets, the precise impact on consumer prices remains uncertain.
"2025 looks to continue the trend of slow-but-steady improvement at the pump," – Patrick De Haan
