Former President Donald Trump has always used a special touch to his international diplomacy, at least when it came to his trade war with China. His tactics, marked by chaos and disrupt at times, have left many wondering what the point has been, and what his end game would be. This article examines Trump’s methods, his interactions with global leaders, and the broader implications of his trade war with China.
Trump’s fit with the “madman theory” appears to be purposefully intended to intimidate his opponents. He has repeatedly argued that the prospect of severe repercussions will force nations such as China to the bargaining table. Such an approach would be consistent with his stated desire to script meetings with world leaders. He prefers in-person confrontations to extended negotiations among civil servants.
During his administration, his Trade Representative, Robert Lighthizer, imposed tariffs on different imports, trying to rewrite agreements and stand up to what Trump liked to call cheating. Trump’s aggressive stance has not only alienated traditional allies like Canada and the European Union but strained relationships worldwide.
The Madman Theory in Action
Donald Trump has never been shy about deploying what’s known as the “madman theory” of diplomacy. This strategy is about creating an optics of chaos to scare your opponents into submission.
His trade policy decisions, especially on China, betray this mindset. As Trump himself stated back in 2016, “For years, China and others have ripped us off and taken advantage of us. In all fairness, that’s the big one.” This sentiment is at the heart of his misguided view that severe punitive actions would eventually result in the best renegotiation terms.
To be sure, at times at least, this has been a greater goal than an accomplishment to date. This highly selective approach raises serious questions about the economic impact this will have on the U.S. Even more insidious is the risk it presents to its trading partners. Most national security experts argue that a new trade war would release a pandora’s box of devastation that would echo around the world.
High-Stakes Meetings
The ex-president’s summits with world leaders are well-known for being scripted, feted dog-and-pony shows, in which choreography is arranged down to the minutiae. This very scripted City Hall scene is intended to limit the narrative. It keeps the panelists’ responses focused on the theme we want to explore deep.
Perhaps the most famous of these interactions came when Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort during his first term. The two leaders subsequently shared “the most beautiful piece of chocolate cake.” In the background, meanwhile, Trump was filling Xi in on the first military strikes he had ordered that very day in Syria. This moment was intended to highlight the idea that personal chemistry would be the key determiner when it comes to getting things done in Trump’s mind.
Trump stated, “He’s been, in a true sense, he’s been a friend of mine for a long period of time,” referring to Xi. This last piece of sentiment underscores the crux of Trump’s belief that personal diplomacy can swing results.
Many experts have cautioned that personal rapport cannot offer a substitute for rigorous, structured negotiations. Zongyuan Zoe Liu remarked, “President Xi Jinping … is not a negotiator. His role is not to be engaged in a trade negotiation; instead it’s the working level, the bureaucrats, the functionaries negotiate the deal.” This naive view ignores the reality that America can’t win every trade negotiation simply because Trump likes the leader on the other side of the table.
Alienation of Allies
In practice, Trump’s “America First” approach has resulted in real and dramatic alienation of our nation’s most critical allies, specifically those located in Europe and North America. His criticisms of the European Union have been sharp and pointed. He once remarked, “The EU has been very tough over the years … I always say it was formed to really do damage to the United States in trade.” These and other announcements have increased worries that trade could become the next front in rising nationalism, undermining the multilateral agenda.
Moreover, Canadian Prime Minister Doug Ford has emphasized the importance of collaboration between Canada and the U.S., stating, “We always believe in the Am-Can fortress, working together to make the two strongest nations in the world. That’s what we want to do.” This sentiment is a clear indication that allies are chomping at the bit to build deeper relationships in response to the alliance-destroying policies of Trump.
Additionally, Trump’s Cabinet meetings have reportedly included discussions about forming trade deals with allies to create a united front against China. These discussions are a testament to efforts to garner support from long-time allies, doing so amid the backdrop of increasingly complicated international relations.
Economic Consequences
Trump’s trade war promises to unleash a storm of destruction on American and Chinese economies alike. Janet Yellen remarked on the tariffs imposed during this period, stating, “We’re now in a huge (trade) war with China, and the tariffs that have been imposed on China are what I would call prohibitive.” As tariffs continue to increase, so do the worries of job losses and recession in each country.
Scott Bessent, an investment strategist, described the current situation as one where “everyone is coming to the table, and basically China is surrounded.” This observation reflects an ongoing effort by Trump’s administration to leverage alliances against China while navigating complex international negotiations.
The bigger picture of what Trump’s trade war means is more than just the economic impact. Analysts have cautioned that simmering tensions may still be able to alter the contours and alliances of global trade for years to come. As proponents celebrate progress made, observers will no doubt be closely watching how these advances play out in the context of changing political sands and economic realities.
