A recent poll reveals significant shifts in Republican sentiments regarding Donald Trump’s performance in his second term, particularly concerning economic issues like the cost of living and job creation. The survey of 404 Republican respondents indicates Trump’s approval ratings are sinking precipitously for his mishandling of key states. This sudden plunge couldn’t be more different from his first term. The results show a complex portrait of Trump’s lasting hold—and potential unhold—on the party. Each is accompanied by a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 6 percentage points.
Of course, during his first term, a stunning 79% of Republicans reported that Trump addressed the increasing cost of living. Most felt like he addressed it at least “a little.” That feeling has plummeted recently. Now, just 40% say he’s had a similar effect since starting his second term. Share of Republicans who believe Trump has had a major effect on cost of living issues fell sharply. It dropped from 49% support in April 2024 to a mere 16%.
Job creation, perhaps the second most important issue for voters after the pandemic according to numerous polls, tells a similar story. In his first term, 85% of GOP members approved Trump’s policies on creating jobs. Unfortunately for him, that support has tanked to a mere 26% for his second term. Only a little more than half of the Republicans surveyed still give him credit for creating jobs, showing an incredible loss of faith.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the poll discovered that immigration and border security are still extremely salient issues to Republican voters. About four-in-five think that Trump has made at least a “little” progress on these fronts in his second term. His approval rating has declined from 88% in March to 76% in the most recent survey. On deportations, as compared to Latinos, most Republicans think he’s struck the right balance. About a third believe that he should do more to shape policies on immigration.
Costs of health care has also become a major issue for voters. Federal health care subsidies for more than 20 million Americans will end on January 1. As a consequence, thousands of these same families are now experiencing soaring prices. Under a third of self-identified Republicans think that Trump has improved health care costs at all, let alone “a lot.” By contrast, 53% said he had a beneficial effect in his first term.
Though the news on inflation has gotten a bit better, many goods are still pricier than when Trump first started his term last January. This significant economic backdrop plays a pivotal role in Republican expectations of Trump’s effectiveness today.
John Candela, a Republican voter, expressed cautious optimism about future improvements, stating, “I would expect it to be different by the time his four years are up.”
Liz Gonzalez of FWD.us lamented the impacts of our broken immigration system on families just trying to reach a better life.
“These families that are being separated and they’re just here to try to live the American dream,” – Liz Gonzalez
Kellenbarger commented on the security aspect of Trump’s approach, saying, “I don’t like anybody getting killed, but it wasn’t Trump’s fault.”
Voter perceptions are largely shaped by Trump’s messaging and where he’s putting his chips. Candela voiced his mixed feelings about Trump’s demeanor:
“I don’t like his brashness. I don’t like his roughness. I don’t like how he types out his texts all capital as if he’s yelling at everybody. But what I approve of is what he is doing to try and get the country on track,” – John Candela
Trump’s supporters used to wildly cheer his heavy-handed moves and bluster. As they all measure his performance in the context of new, erratic and dangerous economic headwinds, a new anxiousness is beginning to set in. The expiration of the health care subsidies and recent spikes in inflation have probably increased this scrutiny among Republican primary voters.
As these trends within the Republican Party continue to play out, it’s important to understand how these feelings will shape future electoral strategies. That knowledge will be important as the Trump campaign prospects for a second term in office.
