Former President Donald Trump gets ready for his first visit to the Middle East, in his second term. Curiously, his plans do not have him stopping in Israel. The trip takes place amid an acute period of international tensions and conflict, including the current crisis in Gaza. Just last week, Trump’s administration negotiated with Hamas a deal to bring home Edan Alexander, the last American hostage we knew of. This step has created a lot of curiosity, even panic, among Israeli bureaucrats and officials as well as the international community at large.
In the run-up to this visit, Trump repeatedly touted his hostage deal. He framed it as a major step toward making bilateral peace more attainable in the region. As for the United States, Washington has exerted the most pressure on Egypt and Qatar. They are asking these countries to persuade Hamas to release the hostages in exchange for a limited ceasefire and increased humanitarian aid. Such an accord would turn the tables on the shifting balance of power in the region. Wealthy Arab countries have pledged trillions of dollars to invest into the United States, including large potential arms purchases that would boost American manufacturing.
A Complex Landscape of Diplomacy
In support of this diplomatic offensive, Trump has personally courted and engaged with the region’s key players. His meeting with the new king of Saudi Arabia was particularly important in moving relations with Arab states forward, a move many consider critical at this time. As the negotiations were underway, Trump made headlines by tweeting plans to go to war with Iran. He plans to finalize an agreement with Yemen’s Houthi insurgents. These shifts, though, have shocked many—including, it seems, most Israeli officials who believe they have been cut out from this unfolding playbook.
Trump’s decision to avoid stops in Jerusalem or Tel Aviv during his trip. Most observers view it as an insult to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who recently returned to office in a challenging political environment. Israeli officials had inquired about the possibility of a meeting, but Trump’s response was clear: he had no plans to visit Israel.
“There’s nothing that Netanyahu has that Trump wants, needs or (that he) can give him, as opposed to, say, the Saudis, the Qataris, (or) the Emiratis.” – Pinkas
This new point of view brings attention to U.S. diplomacy’s broader shift away from focusing on Israel and toward broader alliances with Arab nations. Meanwhile, President-elect Trump is full steam ahead on his anti-infrastructure agenda. He should seek to negotiate an immediate ceasefire and guarantee the release of hostages.
Implications for Israeli Relations
The lack of direct engagement with Netanyahu begs the question what is the future of U.S.-Israel relations under the Biden administration? Sources close to the situation suggest that without tangible results from negotiations, Trump may not prioritize a visit to Israel.
“Without results, he’s not coming (to Israel),” – Source
Israeli circles have grown concerned about the corrosive implications of their domestic influence on U.S. foreign policy. Yet this concern has only escalated under Trump’s new paradigm. As the former president actively seeks a comprehensive agreement to end ongoing conflicts, Israeli officials are left grappling with their role in this changing dynamic.
“Hopefully this is the first of those final steps necessary to end this brutal conflict,” – Trump
The possibilities for massive U.S. arms deals with the Arab states offer Israel significant challenges and opportunities. These types of deals would significantly advance American economic goals. They could raise alarm bells in Israel over regional security and military balance.
A New Era of Middle Eastern Negotiations
Trump’s full-blown engagement strategy seems to represent the start of an age in Middle East peace making wherein the alliances of decades are being reconsidered. His administration was the first to bring Hamas into direct negotiations with Israel. This surprise decision surprised Israeli leaders and sparked discussions as to what this would mean in the long-term.
Negotiation transparency is a key principle that former officials say should guide any future negotiations.
“There has to be a practice of no surprises.” – Dan Shapiro
This call for clarity underscores concerns about how decisions taken during Trump’s trip could affect regional stability and U.S.-Israel relations. And yet, Trump is doubly committed to spreading his vision for peace. How environmentalists, states, and industry respond may help determine where this story goes next in what has become an ongoing saga.
As plans for Trump’s visit move forward, the entire region is looking on with bated breath. His administration’s tactics may redefine alliances and influence future negotiations, all while raising important questions about Israel’s position on the global stage.
