Former President Donald Trump played a large role in changing the direction of international discussions on the war in Ukraine. This shift in position comes less than a week before a possible summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin. European leaders and the United States just shared a happy moment of solidarity in support of Ukraine – here’s what needs to happen next. Trump’s comments of late have raised concerns about the durability of that alliance.
In a twist worthy of a reality show, that was the catalyst that got Trump to respond… and respond publicly. He reversed course after 30 hours of showing a solid front. His proposal for direct talks in Istanbul to begin three days hence. Though not a radical concept, the particular date would likely have serious repercussions on continuing diplomatic overtures. The former president is taking center stage as both Europe and Ukraine continue to get more and more desperate. They are asking for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire, something that Trump’s administration proposed two months ago.
Despite the escalating conflict, Trump has faced no significant sanctions against Russia and has increased military aid to Ukraine—actions European leaders had advocated for. So far he has shied away from anything that would hurt his personal relationship with the Kremlin. This unwillingness has characterized his whole political career. At a time when international tensions are rising, Trump’s policy seems designed to strengthen his personal relationship with Donald Trump over support for our European allies.
The Kyiv declaration signed by European leaders, reflecting their joint vision, stresses the need for a credible ceasefire agreement. Yet the significance of this declaration is more than the potential for halting hostilities. It displays the serious underlying political maneuvering behind all of this. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has expressed personal commitment to the cause but finds himself in a precarious position, offering to meet face-to-face with Putin to facilitate dialogue.
In each of those cases, Trump has been dangerously reticent to hear the apparent solidarity of his allies. Now he’s posturing to say there’s a price to pay if negotiations fail. Keith Kellogg, his special envoy to Ukraine, has urged Russia to respect the request for a ceasefire. This insistence only serves to compound the complicated diplomatic landscape.
Judging by Trump’s recent statements, the administration seems very much excited to go mano-a-mano with Russia. He’s called on Zelensky, “Hold the meeting, today! This call is a clear expression of that pressing urgency as the clock continues to tick down to the Istanbul meeting. This directive aligns with Trump’s historical approach of seeking direct negotiation channels with adversaries, despite criticism from allies who fear that such engagement may undermine coordinated efforts against Russian aggression.
European leaders had hoped that they had persuaded Trump to back their blue-green joint plan. This deal included the explicit promise of tougher future sanctions against Russia should they fail to comply by Monday. The former president apparently wishes he were still fostering that relationship with Putin. He seems more unconcerned about being in lockstep with Europe.
As things develop, every one’s attention will turn to a meeting scheduled for this December in Istanbul. Whether Putin attends is still up in the air, as he has not committed to going since first starting negotiations over direct talks. In short, the success or failure of these negotiations may have far-reaching implications for Ukraine’s future and the geopolitical landscape at large.
