Donald Trump has made some big splashes lately with a bold plan to freeze the hot war playing out in Ukraine. He recommends taking the present-day front lines as a starting point for negotiations going forward. This proposal comes on the heels of a tangled landscape. Russia continues to occupy areas of eastern and southern Ukraine, encompassing all of Luhansk and nearly all of Donetsk.
As of now, Russia has seized territory primarily in four provinces: Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia. Most remarkably, it holds roughly 75 percent of Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts. This part of the country is critical because of its industrial heritage and significance. It overwhelmingly still hosts Europe’s largest nuclear power plant. Back at home, Ukraine continues to move forward with its ongoing commitment to liberate every last bit of territory that Russia occupies.
Trump’s Proposal and Its Implications
This would fit in neatly with Trump’s other, highly variable, statement that the war should end by recognizing Russian territorial claims on Ukraine. He’s suggested in the past that both countries would have to give up land in order to come to a peaceful settlement. More recently, he has expressed confidence in Ukraine’s military capabilities, suggesting that it could retake not only occupied regions but potentially Crimea as well.
“Let it be cut the way it is. It’s cut up right now. I think 78 percent of the land is already taken by Russia,” – Donald Trump
In his most recent comments, Trump raised the issue of the need for a ceasefire along existing lines of engagement. He stated, “They can negotiate something later on down the line. I said cut and stop at the battle line.” This is a sobering proposal, and it begs the question of how much territory Ukraine could be pressured to give up in any possible settlement.
European leaders have welcomed Trump’s proposal with open arms, celebrating it with a joint statement together with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. They asserted that “the current line of contact should be the starting point of negotiations.” This additional endorsement represents the beginning, among Western countries, of an important shift in how our governments should pursue diplomacy to end the conflict.
The Territorial Landscape
Today Russia has taken full control of Luhansk and much of Donetsk, including important ground in the east around the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. It also controls a small pocket in Kharkiv province. The stakes are extremely high considering the territory that this hold represents and its enormous implications on Ukraine’s economic and security situation.
The areas of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson are especially interesting because of the large share of Ukrainian industry that is concentrated there. Zaporizhia is famous for its steel, aluminum, and aircraft manufacturing industries which are a key part of Ukraine’s industrial heartland. This tiny region is home to Europe’s largest operational nuclear power facility. This would insert a potentially complicating military/security dynamic into any territorial bargain negotiations.
The increased threat of war in Europe has put energy security back at the top of the agenda, particularly with the significance of Zaporizhia’s nuclear plant. As negotiations for a ceasefire advance, the game continues for each side with high stakes.
Russia’s Position on Ceasefire Negotiations
Russia’s rather dismissive response to Trump’s proposal proves how uncompromising the Kremlin continues to remain on the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that “the consistency of Russia’s position doesn’t change,” reinforcing Moscow’s demand to retain control over all territories seized from Ukraine.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov added that any discussions should aim for “a long-term, sustainable peace – not an immediate ceasefire that would lead nowhere.” This widespread sentiment underscores the challenges in finding a deal that appeases both sides.
