Former President Donald Trump reproached Iran to hold direct talks with the United States. He shared this view again just last week. He hinted at the possibility of further in-person diplomacy between Washington and Tehran. This is all a marked departure from just last week when tensions still ran high with Iranian officials threatening U.S.
Trump’s comments come as he sent a letter to Iranian leadership proposing negotiations to address Iran’s nuclear program. He raised the need for direct negotiations to the point of being key. He argues that they result in faster approvals and clearer conveyances compared to routing through middlemen. He likes getting straight to the point. Instead, he argues, mediated conversations fail to move people beyond a desire for agreement to the deeper home of understanding and acceptance.
Yet whenever Iranian officials have seen an opportunity to lash back at Trump’s overtures, they’ve done so with threats. They warned that if the United States were to attack, Iran would retaliate against U.S. troops and interests in the Middle East. A few weeks ago, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued a provocative proclamation. He just announced that intimidation tactics from the US will never work on Iran. This comment further underscores the persistent volatility of U.S.-Iran relations.
Tehran has long maintained that it is not pursuing a nuclear weapon. Further, it has rigidly dismissed the possibility of direct negotiations with Washington. Iranian officials have shown their willingness to engage in indirect diplomacy. The current diplomatic landscape is a toss up. Not clear if Iran has actually changed its position or if Trump is just making stuff up.
The backdrop to these discussions includes the U.S. administration’s imposition of extensive sanctions aimed at crippling Iran’s oil exports, particularly to China. When in 2018 Trump now unilaterally withdrew the United States from a multilateral agreement. This agreement had led Iran to significantly scale back its nuclear program in return for the gradual loosening of international sanctions. Since then, tensions have escalated.
Trump further remarked on Iran’s precarious position, suggesting that the country feels vulnerable following significant geopolitical shifts in the region. He threatened, “If they don’t come to an agreement, there will be bombing.” This statement underscores his willingness to exercise military force should diplomacy fail. He pointed out that Iran has lost key allies, particularly after armed opposition groups toppled Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in December of last year.
The devastating war in Gaza and other flashpoints further heightens an already volatile situation. As disruptive as this turmoil has often been, it has almost certainly bled and undermined Tehran’s influence. As Israel remains a close U.S. ally with an undeclared nuclear arsenal, the stakes for any potential negotiations remain high.
