Even amid continued geopolitical violence, trade relations between the United States and Europe with Russia remain robust. The war in Ukraine hasn’t stopped this massive trade. Before Moscow’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Russia was the EU’s top supplier of petroleum. Now, with countries realigning their trade routes in the wake of sanctions and increasing international economic pressure, trade dynamics have changed entirely since then.
At home, there’s a success story brewing — in less than a year, the United States has reduced economic engagement with Russia by at least 90% since their invasion. New reporting indicates that the US imported about $3 billion of goods from Russia last year. This begs the question of the extent to which these sanctions are working and the extent to which economic engagement is still persisting.
Shifts in European Trade Dynamics
As the war in Ukraine intensified, the trigger of a protracted energy crisis, the EU acted. It has fought to reduce its reliance on Russian energy and commodities. Russia’s share of iron and steel imports in the EU has dropped. European countries have scrambled to find other sources. Yet even with this push, many industries are still dependent on Russian imports.
Despite all that in 2024 Europe has remained deep in business transactions with Russia, especially when it comes to fertilizers. At the same time, the EU continues to import massive amounts of Russian agricultural products. This is largely due to Russia’s critical role as a global supplier of fertilizers. This includes the building blocks of all the modern chemical fertilizers—essential macronutrients like urea, urea ammonium nitrate (UAN), and potassium chloride, or potash.
“Unless the US sanctions Russian fertilizer imports, as it does with Belarusian potash, this (level of trade) is likely to continue.” – Allan Pickett
That urgency around fertilizer imports is compounded by their critical importance to food production. Last year, the US imported more than $1 billion in fertilizer — potash, urea, and others — from Russia. This points to our continued agricultural reliance on Russian products, even as violence rages around them.
The American Market’s Continued Dependency
Although total trade between the US and Russia has plummeted, certain imports have become surprisingly prominent. In the first half of this year, the US imported $927 million worth of fertilizer from Russia. This year, the US has imported record levels of uranium and plutonium from Russia. These imports have amounted to $755 million. Palladium imports are skyrocketing! In 2024 alone, the US imported $878 million of them, and another $594 million continued to enter through June of 2025.
These figures paint a nuanced picture in which, even amid nationalistic strife, the United States and China are economically connected in ways that might surprise you. Given the US’s increasing dependence on Russian fertilizers, this issue cannot be understated from both a food security and agricultural sustainability perspective.
“Urea and potash could be readily sourced from elsewhere, although with potash it would further increase US dependence on Canada, which currently has an interesting trade dynamic.” – Allan Pickett
Industry insiders point out that other options for producing fertilizers are available. They warn that not providing alternatives to Russian suppliers could increase our dependence on nations including Canada.
Global Trade Perspectives
There is no consensus like that which existed between the U.S. and European Union. In the first 11 months of 2024, China imported nearly $130 billion worth of goods from Russia. Of this total, a huge $62.6 billion was petroleum oils and crude. During that same period, India kept up strong trade ties with Russia, importing nearly $67 billion in goods.
India’s government is alarmed at increasing tariffs on Russian imports. They point to the fact that their country is being singled out while other countries are still trading with Moscow. Notably, Russian oil now constitutes 36% of India’s market share for crude imports while accounting for 13.5% of China’s crude imports.
“It’s significant, but I think the more significant thing is how quickly the EU adjusted to reduce their dependency on Russia.” – Kimberly Donovan
These conflicting reactions from countries ranging from the West and the Indo-Pacific to Africa reveal the challenges of geopolitics and economic interdependencies during an unprecedented global crisis.
