It gets really complicated with regard to former President Donald Trump’s foreign policy. He has threatened to impose secondary tariffs on the country of any nation that keeps doing business with Russia. This gamechanging move comes against a backdrop of continuing war in Ukraine and an energy addicted world economy. Since Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the country has suffered more than 21,000 sanctions. Still, it’s rolling in over 500 million euros, about $580 million, every day from energy exports.
As nations navigate these changing dynamics, China’s significant purchase of Russian exports—nearly a third of the total in 2023—alongside India’s growing stake in Russian oil and natural gas complicates the landscape. The European Union is still deeply dependent on Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG). This substantial reliance raises serious questions about the likely effect of any secondary tariffs on the U.S., its allies, and global markets.
The Economic Landscape of Russian Energy Exports
Since the start of the Ukraine war, Russia’s economy has faced a barrage of sanctions. Even so, it continues to boom largely on energy exports. By the second half of 2022, Russia was again raking in abundant revenue from its oil and gas sectors. They were generating more than 500 million euros per day! This massive financial windfall has given Russia the ability to project a sense of normalcy and prosperity in the face of mounting international sanctions and pressure.
China was the biggest consumer of Russian exports in 2023, accounting for close to a third of the total. At the same time, India has massively boosted its dependence on Russian energy, representing 17 percent of all Russian exports. Incredibly, India ended up buying nearly 40 percent of all Russian oil exports that year. These developments further signal a historic sea change in global energy markets — where the long-held allegiances are being upended.
Today, Turkiye has become the third-largest purchaser of Russian energy. So far in 2023, it has won back 8 percent of Russia’s formerly sanctioned exports. These relationships strengthen Russia’s economy and undercut the West’s efforts to politically isolate Russia through sanctions.
The Threat of Secondary Tariffs
In case you missed it, Trump made a pretty big splash with his announcement. He can, for example, threaten secondary tariffs of up to 100 percent on all goods imported from countries that continue to trade with Russia. This decision specifically aims to punish countries such as India and China. Most importantly, they have increased his country’s economic dependence on Russia, despite widespread international condemnation.
Trump’s tariffs have been a scattershot attack on industries across many different goods. Now any imports from countries that allow Russia to keep trading will pay extra duties, on top of the current tariffs. For instance, he recently doubled tariffs on Indian imports from 25 percent to 50 percent as punishment for India’s refusal to halt its purchases of Russian oil. These tariffs would do a great deal of harm. They complain about retaliatory actions taken by countries hurt by their measures and jeopardize the very foundation of world trade.
European nations are already bearing the brunt of this inexcusable action. Further, Trump has leveled a 15 percent tariff on all imports from countries cooperating with Russia. If secondary tariffs are used, those secondary measures could profoundly change the nature of U.S. trade relations. This amendment might simultaneously increase tensions between the United States and its traditional allies.
The Global Response and Future Implications
The world’s reaction to Trump’s secondary tariffs is hard to predict. We have seen China and India immensely deepening their strategic trade partnerships with Russia. They’re more than prepared to deal with the U.S.’s wrath for doing so. For one, Europe remains largely reliant on Russian LNG imports. Indeed, imports are up 9 percent over last year’s totals right now. Together, these tariffs have the potential to undermine the continent’s energy security.
For their part, Russia has been eager to engage Trump on these tariffs, illustrating the challenges of foreign policy in the age of perpetual war. The stakes couldn’t be higher. Should these tariffs go on, they would not only shatter U.S-Russia relations, but have a profoundly negative effect on the geopolitical landscape.
