The Arctic is growing increasingly important and its face is changing quickly, offering potential new opportunities and threats to the world’s global superpowers. Because the climate crisis isn’t waiting. Consequently, the Arctic is warming roughly four times faster than the global average, contributing, paradoxically enough, to it being one of the most dynamic and most contested regions on the globe. As Russia, China, and the United States compete for influence, the stakes are great in this cold battleground.
Russia today holds three-fourths of the Arctic’s GDP and over the last two decades has ramped up its presence and mobilized resources in the Arctic. Since 2022, it has used the Northern Sea Route to move oil and gas to China. This new maritime route has significantly reduced travel times between Asia and Europe. Today, ships can make the trip in around two weeks, essentially cutting the time in half versus conventional routes such as the Suez Canal. This efficiency has pushed the Northern Sea Route to the forefront as a tempting alternative for commercial shipping.
Alongside its economic pursuits, Russia has furthered militarization of the Arctic. At present there are 66 military sites and hundreds of defense installations across the expansive Arctic region. Advanced developments in radar, UAVs, and missile technologies solidify Russia’s determination to continue to dominate in this critical corridor of control.
The changing physical environment of the Arctic is undergoing a major transformation. Since the late 2000s, the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage have experienced significant ice melt. Now, by late summer, they’re nearly ice-free. This transformation has opened previously unviable shipping routes, enticing nations to explore their potential for commercial shipping and resource extraction.
Podlesny noted that Finland and Sweden recently joined NATO in 2023 and 2024, respectively. This realignment has changed the geopolitical map of the Arctic above the treeline. This development has effectively divided the Arctic into two primary spheres of influence: one under Russian control and another aligned with NATO countries. This strategic environment underscores the importance of this region as a crucible of geopolitical competition between these three great powers.
China, a self-proclaimed “near-Arctic state” since 2018, has not hidden its intentions in the region. The nation has recently detailed a “polar silk road” proposal to expand its shipping capacity and infrastructure in Arctic waters. This year, in a further escalation, China and Russia conducted their first joint Arctic patrol in 2024. This collaboration is a signal of their deepening partnership and mutual responsiveness to the shifting regional power balance.
The associated competition for resources and strategic routes further emphasizes the fragility of this rapidly changing environment. As Russia and China extend their reach, they encounter different problems. They need to confront the reality climate change poses to their goals and the environment.
