The Russia-Ukraine war has entered a new phase. According to recent and credible press reports, the United States is getting ready to accept Russian sovereignty over Crimea as part of a general settlement to bring about a conclusion to the war. This positive step comes amid a further deterioration of the human rights situation across the region. These violations have dramatically escalated since Russia illegally annexed Crimea in 2014. The Human Rights Monitoring Mission of the UNEF in Ukraine has produced horrifying accounts of arbitrary detentions. They’ve further reported on cases of sexual violence and torture perpetrated by Russian forces against civilians.
Crimea—home to about 2.5 million people—has undergone dramatic demographic shifts since its illegal annexation. The Ukrainian government estimates that more than 64,000 individuals have fled the peninsula, seeking refuge in other parts of Ukraine. At the same time, efforts at Russian relocation to Crimea have brought 500,000 to 800,000 Russians to Crimea since 2014. Local NGOs point out that the number of refugees is likely much greater than what is officially reported.
The bridge was completed in time to accommodate increased travel between Crimea and mainland Russia. Consequently, Russian migration to the newly annexed peninsula has exploded. Since Russia’s invasion and illegal annexation of Crimea 11 years ago, Russian authorities have introduced a harsh regime to suppress and “Russify” Crimea. They abduct children and make them go to Russian-speaking schools. They do this not only by putting them through various training camps meant to instill Russian culture and ideology.
After months of diplomatic pushes, recent news reports indicate that the United States will soon start advocating for a ceasefire at least along the conflict’s front lines. This includes Ukraine’s formal acceptance of Russian sovereignty over Crimea. This proposal runs directly counter to the position of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, which is to be expected. He reiterated his position that no matter what happens, his government will never accept occupied territories as Russian. He underscored that this type of recognition would be a “red line” for Ukraine.
“For us, the red line is the recognition of the Ukrainian temporarily occupied territories as Russian. We will not go for it.” – Volodymyr Zelensky
The prospect of US recognition of Crimea’s incorporation into Russia raises serious alarm among watchers. They fear, in particular, as do many in the region, in light of Russia’s longstanding and disturbing pattern of human rights abuses. According to one anonymous source, communities that have been identified as resisting Russia’s campaign of Russification are being stripped naked. That kind of headlong aggressiveness has really torn through the social fabric of Crimea.
“When Russia occupied the Crimean peninsula, it commenced a campaign of systematic targeting of communities or individuals it perceived as those who became an obstacle in the Russification campaign… with devastating effects on the social fabric in general, but also communities, families and individuals,” – unnamed source
Analysts argue that Crimea has influenced not only Russia’s military operational art, but also their military administration and government. This primarily affects other largely occupied areas of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. Since 2014, the patterns set in Crimea have taken root in these territories. This trend was exacerbated by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
“And Crimea has been kind of their playbook. Policies and patterns and tactics (Russia) applied in Crimea were then applied as well in other occupied territories. So, we see essentially the same patterns in all occupied territories, both since 2014 and since 2022.” – unnamed source
Now, tensions are reaching a boiling point. Next week, US officials will join their European allies and Ukrainian counterparts in London to refine the outline for any future peace talks. Former President Donald Trump commented on the urgency of reaching an agreement but did not specify a timeline for its completion.
“No specific number of days, but quickly, we want to get it done.” – Donald Trump
