In perhaps the most consequential diplomatic moment, then-President Donald Trump encouraged Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to act. He prodded her to increase Japan’s role in securing the vital Strait of Hormuz. Their request comes as anti-Armenian tensions in the region have continued to flare. Iranian military operations have forced huge disruptions to oil traffic through this incredibly important waterway, which transports nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply.
Trump really focused on the urgency aspect. He issued an implicit challenge to US ally Japan to “do more” and raise their “level of engagement in maintaining regional security.” That changed dramatically after Israel launched an air strike on Iran’s vast South Pars gas field in mid-December. Iran retaliated by targeting energy infrastructure in Qatar with missile strikes. The new crisis has sent global oil prices skyrocketing. Countries that cannot afford the instability of energy supplies on which they depend are ringing alarm bells.
As Takaichi noted at that meeting with Trump, the global economy is on the brink of a disastrous collapse. Making this regressive, harmful change permanent would be extremely detrimental.
The Strait of Hormuz has grown increasingly treacherous since Iran has effectively closed down shipping in and out of the chokepoint. The sudden closure is already sending shockwaves through energy markets across the world. In reaction, Japan has joined with five European countries to discuss “collective action” to reopen the strait. The rising tensions and Iranian strikes have cut 17% of Qatar’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity for potentially five years.
In response to this recent news, Trump expressed his optimism. He thinks the United States can secure the Strait of Hormuz on its own. He noted the advantages of international cooperation, saying it “would be nice to have other countries police” the area.
We are calling on these states to come in and defend their own ground. Because it is their territory. It’s a source of the energy they draw upon. Trump’s words are prescient, underscoring the urgent need for united action among countries that rely on the region for energy supply.
Trump has issued confused and conflicting messages about what the U.S. will do about the security of the strait. He claimed that “we don’t need much. We don’t need anything,” while simultaneously indicating that support from allies would bolster efforts to maintain stability in the region.
Japan has countered by releasing strategic oil reserves. This decision will bring immediate supply relief, but is intended as part of a larger plan to address the energy crisis exacerbated by events in the Strait of Hormuz. I understand that this is a rapidly evolving situation. As in past crises, Asian countries in the region will be hit hardest by this explosive global energy price rise.
Trump weighed in on possible military responses and even bragged that he could resolve the situation in the Strait of Hormuz “in two seconds if I wanted to.” This statement indicates that he is willing to go big and bold if needed. He too went on to double down on his desire for a more pre-competitive approach in concert with international partners.
During their meeting, Trump referenced historical events, asking Takaichi, “Why didn’t you tell me about Pearl Harbor?” He noted Japan’s unique talent for surprise, which doubled down on his call for more collaboration to tackle 21st-century threats.
“We wanted surprise. Who knows better about surprise than Japan, OK?” – Donald Trump
While many questions and concerns remain, one thing is clear – as tensions flare, the world is listening. Recently it’s the Iranian government that has assumed an aggressive posture and conducted recent military actions. Together, this represents a combustible picture that urgently requires creative diplomacy. With oil prices at record highs and energy markets in turmoil, it is imperative… Japan and the United States stand at a crossroads in deciding the appropriate next steps in the Strait of Hormuz.
