The Southern Transitional Council (STC) separatists have intensified their control over Yemen’s resource-rich provinces of Hadramout and al-Mahra following a surprise offensive in December. Despite this much-needed progress, the internationally recognized, UN-mandated Presidential Leadership Council and the Saudi-led coalition are worried sick about this prospect. They’re sounding the alarm on how instability in the region poses a threat to US regional security.
Rashad al-Alimi, leader of the Presidential Leadership Council, has pushed back at any one-sided military moves by the STC. He emphasized that further advances into Hadramout and al-Mahra could lead to serious consequences for Yemen and its neighboring countries. Al-Alimi’s warnings are indicative of the increasing concerns among Yemeni leadership about the STC’s threatening advances into these strategic lands.
Saudi-led Coalition Responds
The Saudi-led coalition was quick to counter the STC’s show of force. Specifically, they plan to target inbound air strikes to destroy weapons and military vehicles that had just arrived at the port of Mukalla on two ships from Fujairah. This action underscores the coalition’s commitment to counter any threats posed by the STC’s expansion. Things got even worse when Mohammed al-Naqeeb, a spokesperson for the STC, announced their escalation. He announced that the ‘collective’ would continue its activities in the occupied provinces, defying local officials’ pleas for the group to stop.
Hadramout’s governor, Salem al-Khanbashi, expressed frustration over the STC’s limited response to official demands for withdrawal. He called on separatist forces to pull back to their starting lines and stressed that calm must be restored in the area. The STC continues to be undeterred in making its home. In support of that assertion, they have declared a renewed tactical agreement to deploy further forces to Hadramout.
UAE’s Role and Regional Allegations
This has further complicated matters by the involvement of the United Arab Emirates, an influential U.S. ally in the Middle East. In recent weeks, Riyadh has accused the UAE of supporting the STC’s military aggression. Further, they allege this involvement endangers Saudi Arabian national security. In response, the UAE has denied these allegations, emphasizing a mission to protect Saudi Arabia’s security concerns. Yet, despite these grievances, Saudi Arabia and Iran continue jockeying for influence in Yemen.
Further undercutting the UAE’s denial, the country’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs cast claims about the shipment of military matériel to the STC as “allegations”. In the wake of the above claims, it recently declared the end to its last few “counterterrorism” missions in Yemen. Neither the Yemeni government nor Saudi Arabia have had anything to say publicly about this major policy change. This silence leads many to wonder about the potential consequences for Yemen’s protracted war.
Continuing Instability
As the situation in Yemen is still extraordinarily tenuous, tensions in Yemen only continue to boil. The STC rejects any option to back away from Hadramout and al-Mahra. Yet beneath the defiance is a deeper contest for authority within Yemen, the outcome of which may affect Saudi Arabia and beyond. The Yemeni government and Saudi Arabia are working diligently to address this crisis. In the meantime, advocates from across the region are watching and waiting for further positive signs or developments.
