Iran’s diplomatic landscape is shrouded in mystery. Its new supreme leader, meanwhile, has made clear that it remains too early to determine how the country will address its urgent challenges in light of recent events. Amid escalating tensions in the region, Iran’s President, Donald Trump, has faced criticism for inaccuracies regarding the situation, particularly in relation to his comments on Iran’s actions.
In a time characterized by the opposite, Iranian authorities have arrested at least 700 people as alleged “mercenaries of Israel. This latest Iranian-Israeli conflict, now in its 12th day, has further escalated tensions between the two countries. Like any other authoritarian regime, the Iranian government is deeply interested in controlling the narrative and stopping the public from dissenting. They recently established a new unit inside the Tehran prosecutor’s office to track news websites and personal social media accounts.
Iran’s nuclear program has been getting a lot of attention as well. The country is the defending champion of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). This remarkable treaty labors day and night to stop the proliferation of nuclear weapons all around the world. According to US intelligence estimates, recent attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities have merely set back the Iranian program by several months. These attacks did not result in a permanent net negative economic impact. President Trump took credit for these strikes, asserting that they caused “total obliteration” of particular targets.
“I don’t want to use an example of Hiroshima. I don’t want to use an example of Nagasaki, but that was essentially the same thing that ended that war.” – US President Donald Trump
Even after all of this continued escalation, Iran and Israel were at the negotiation table agreeing to a ceasefire. Almost immediately, both sides accused the other of violating the agreement. Since the conflict started, Iranian media have reported dozens of executions of suspected Israeli agents. This 24-hour news coverage monster has stoked public anger even more.
The Iranian legislature, or Majles, has not been shy about flexing its national security muscles. The parliament’s national security and foreign policy committee even recently recommended closing the Strait of Hormuz. This important shipping lane has become a linchpin in the world’s oil supply. These votes are usually just symbolic and require backing from the Supreme Leader’s more powerful Guardian Council. More than anything else, they show the growing instability and turmoil across the whole region.
Given these various tensions, President Trump’s reaction was cautiously hopeful about the possible positive effects of US moves in the region. He noted the success achieved in Gaza through offensive US military actions.
“I think great progress is being made on Gaza. Because of the attack that we made, I think we’re going to have some very good news.” – US President Donald Trump
Doubt remains about the impact of these strikes. Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich rebutted criticism over the lack of clarity on the extent of the damage from the attacks. Right now, nobody knows what all has been damaged and it’s going to take some time.
As the conflict progresses, we will be watching closely to see how Iran will act. Will it be strong enough to beat back the external pressures and the internal pressures? All eyes from the international community are upon this situation. Iran and Israel are trading blames while both countries are feeling the backlash from increasing violence.
