Luke Grant, a physical scientist with Environment and Climate Change Canada, recently led an international study. It showed us some disturbing projections, including the fact that future generations are going to feel climate change’s impact much more severely. A new study, published last week in the highly regarded journal Nature, paints an alarming picture. Over the course of 1960 to 2020, the number of Americans facing extreme weather events will more than double.
The study highlights the grim reality that babies born in 2020 could experience between 11 and 26 heatwaves throughout their lives, depending on future global temperature increases. Luke Grant’s independent analysis is based on data from his PhD research while in Brussels, Belgium. He’s particularly concerned about millennials’ health, warning that there are large differences in climate exposure between generations.
Escalating Exposure to Extreme Weather
Under these predictions, just 2% of those born in 1960 will face unprecedented exposure to wildfires. Climate projections show an alarming future for U.S. children — more than half of the 62 million kids born in 2020 will face a lifetime of extreme heatwaves. Specifically, this will occur if global temperatures rise more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
Further analysis reveals even more concerning forecasts. If we allow the world to heat up by 2.5°C, babies born in 2020 could experience as many as 18 more heatwaves in their lifetime. A more severe rise of 3.5°C would result in an incredible 26 heatwaves annually for them. Taken together, these findings point to an urgent need for climate action. Under current policies, we are already on a path to at least 2.7°C of warming by the end of the century.
“The most important point here is emissions of earlier generations is having a disproportionate impact on later generations.” – Luke Grant
The implications of these projections are dire. If global average temperatures continue to increase and reach 3.5°C above preindustrial levels, we will experience devastating impacts. In fact, 92% of the children born in 2020—about 111 million people—are on a path toward never-before-seen exposure to extreme weather events.
Impacts on Canadian Youth
This study marks a very troubling trend. In doing so, hundreds of thousands of Canadians will be moved beyond the reach of this rising threat. Luke Grant stressed the importance of recognizing the potential consequences for the youngest generations: “What’s special about our study is that it’s multidisciplinary—we’re taking a lot of effort to draw a connection between climate modelling and the human experience.”
If we meet the targets laid out in the Paris climate accord and limit global warming to well below 1.5°C, we can do so and leave a healthy planet for generations to come. Nearly 613 million children born between 2003 and 2020 will no longer have to experience deadly heatwaves during their lifetimes. This finding highlights the critical role that international agreements and local policies play in shaping a sustainable future for future generations.
The Path Forward
Luke Grant’s study serves as a clarion call to policymakers and communities alike, urging immediate action to mitigate climate change impacts. He warned that as climate change progresses, country-level data could experience significant fluctuations as people adapt to their new realities.
With current trajectories indicating a potential increase of 2.7°C by 2100, there is an urgent need for concerted efforts to reduce emissions and implement effective climate strategies. Keeping warming within the proposed limits could protect vast swaths of humanity’s youngest generations from the catastrophic effects of extreme weather.
