Iran and Russia have finalized a long-delayed cooperation agreement, marking a significant step in reinforcing the ties between the two nations. This agreement, which enhances military and defense cooperation, reflects their shared interests in countering perceived global hegemony, particularly that of the United States. While not constituting a formal alliance, the agreement ensures mutual security by including a clause that neither country would permit its territory to be used for actions threatening the other's safety.
The agreement builds on existing Russian-Iranian cooperation concerning Ukraine and efforts to circumvent Western sanctions. Both nations have found common ground in their opposition to American influence, using Syrian territory to operate against shared adversaries. This partnership is expected to shift regional dynamics, compelling countries like Turkey, a longstanding supporter of the opposition in Syria, to adapt.
Iran is likely to leverage this agreement to bolster its influence in Iraq, described as "the last pillars of Iran’s axis of resistance." Furthermore, Iran's strategic position as a critical transit hub for Russia’s North-South Transport Corridor enhances its role as a vital trade route to Asia. This development suggests that Iran aims to solidify its geopolitical influence through strengthened economic and military collaboration with Russia.
Historically, Russia has played a pivotal role in Iran's nuclear program, including the construction of the Bushehr nuclear power plant. However, Russia has also stalled progress on Iran’s nuclear ambitions throughout the 2000s and 2010s. Iran, accused by Western nations of seeking nuclear weapons, officially opposes such pursuits in its defense doctrine. Nevertheless, some factions within Iran are calling for a reassessment of this stance.
"Russia doesn’t want Iran to be equipped with nuclear weapons … [that] would change the balance of power in the Middle East against Russia’s interests." – Armin Montazeri, foreign policy editor at Hammihan Daily in Tehran.
Montazeri underscores Russia's strategic interest in maintaining control over regional power dynamics, highlighting that an armed Iran could alter these balances unfavorably for Russia.
"The best scenario for Russia is for Iran to remain under sanctions and to challenge the US and Europe over its nuclear programme," – Armin Montazeri, foreign policy editor at Hammihan Daily in Tehran.
Montazeri further elaborates that Russia benefits from Iran challenging Western powers while remaining under sanctions.
"If Russia were to cooperate in containing Iran, it would likely seek concessions from the US on the Ukraine issue," – Armin Montazeri, foreign policy editor at Hammihan Daily in Tehran.
This statement suggests that Russia sees strategic opportunities in balancing its support for Iran with potential diplomatic engagements with the West.
The cooperation agreement signals a strategic partnership between Iran and Russia, encompassing military and security domains, and extending into economic collaboration aimed at evading Western sanctions.
"The two sides have taken steps to elevate their relationship toward some sort of strategic partnership, particularly in areas like military and security cooperation, and more recently in economic cooperation, aimed at evading sanctions and adapting to the negative implications of economic pressures from the West," – Azizi.
Yet, the dynamics of this partnership are complex. Any future developments, such as changes in military presence or agreements to end conflicts like the Ukraine war, could influence the extent of this collaboration.
"For example, if Russia can maintain its military bases in Syria, albeit in a more reduced capacity, and if there is an agreement to end the war in Ukraine after [US President-elect] Donald Trump takes office, Russia may actually feel less need for Iranian support on various fronts in both Syria and Ukraine," – Azizi.
Given these evolving geopolitical landscapes, both nations are adjusting their strategies to maintain their influence. Putin remains aware of Western opposition and is unlikely to risk alliances with loyal partners like Iran.
"Putin is well aware of the anti-Russian stance embedded in the US and European establishments," – Seyed Emamian, co-founder of the Governance and Policy think tank in Tehran.
"Over the last three years, Russia has faced what it perceives as an existential challenge from the West … it seems unlikely that Putin would risk his longstanding alliances, especially with those who have proven their loyalty in critical moments, such as in Syria and Crimea," – Seyed Emamian, co-founder of the Governance and Policy think tank in Tehran.
Meanwhile, Iran must navigate these shifts while establishing relations with new governments in strategic regions.
"Iran, while clearly disadvantaged, will have to adjust to the new reality and establish some form of relationship with Syria’s new government," – Omer Ozkizilcik, director of Turkish Studies at the Omran Center for Strategic Studies in Istanbul.
"Building a multipolar world and countering the expansionist plans of the United States and the collective West remain central to Russian-Iranian cooperation," – Kirill Semenov, a non-resident expert with the Russian International Affairs Council.
The unfolding situation in Syria has been a catalyst for strengthening Russian-Iranian ties. Both countries have experienced setbacks with losing key allies like al-Assad, which has weakened their power across the Middle East.
"It is arguably Syria that has provided the key impetus to the strengthening of ties, with both powers losing a key ally in al-Assad, weakening their power in the wider Middle East," – Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International Security Affairs.
