Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center, recently crossed above the anticipated maximum peak of Solar Cycle 25. This unexpected discovery has generated a great deal of excitement and debate among the scientific and amateur communities alike. Our latest monthly results indicate that the current cycle reached an all-time high smoothed monthly value of 156.7 in August 2024. This incredible figure well outpaces the forecast of 101.8 to 125.2 monthly sunspots, due in mid-July 2025.
Solar Cycle 25 officially began in December 2019, just as Solar Cycle 24 was going down. This change represents the beginning of a new solar cycle. Solar cycles are usually about 11 years long, although the cycle length can differ widely from one cycle to the next. The current cycle, number 25, has already proved an impressive upswing in sunspot activity. It has far exceeded the performance of its immediate predecessor, Solar Cycle 24.
The 13-month smoothed value is just the average of the number of sunspots for a given month. That average is taken from six months before and six months after that month. This approach eliminates seasonal variation and produces a more consistent depiction of solar activity trends throughout the years. According to the latest scientific measurements, Solar Cycle 25 most likely reached its peak between August to November of 2024. In other words, the solar maximum might already be behind us.
Environmentalists and consultants alike say that the peak if not already reached, is very close. They caution that significant solar activity may continue for one to two years beyond this solar max peak. It’s important to note that a secondary peak in Solar Cycle 25 is not out of the question. This would likely delay the peak solar maximum to sometime in late 2025. The maximum Solar Cycle 25 is defined as the top of the 13-month smoothed curve. This definition is concerned with the general trend rather than the monthly peak sunspot numbers.
The NOAA’s original predictions for Solar Cycle 25 were based on an aggregation of forecasts from the scientific community, reflecting a collaborative approach to understanding solar behavior. That official prediction called for a peak solar activity level to hit around the middle of 2025. What we’ve actually observed, both at home and around the world, has forced us to reconsider this timeline.
Each solar cycle has a different level of activity. They’re punctuated by explosive sunspot activity, with dramatic eruptions blasting energy and matter into space — interspersed with cycles of relative peace. Whatever the short-term trajectory, solar events are on the upswing. Researchers are still getting an early read on the new law, so stay tuned for further updates.
The implications of these findings are significant. In addition, high solar activity can completely change the environment in space, affecting satellite operations and communication systems on our planet. Now, scientists and meteorologists have to be on high alert. They’re constantly monitoring current solar trends and adjusting their predictions to stay ahead of the curve.
