Shifting Sands: The New Dynamics of US-Pakistan Relations

The Pakistan–United States relationship was established soon after Pakistan achieved independence from Britain in 1947. Over the decades, it has undergone radical changes. Pakistan was an early Cold War ally, acquiescing to Washington’s demands. Since then, the relationship has been essentially transactional for its relationship with the US, particularly on security issues. Historically, the US…

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Shifting Sands: The New Dynamics of US-Pakistan Relations

The Pakistan–United States relationship was established soon after Pakistan achieved independence from Britain in 1947. Over the decades, it has undergone radical changes. Pakistan was an early Cold War ally, acquiescing to Washington’s demands. Since then, the relationship has been essentially transactional for its relationship with the US, particularly on security issues. Historically, the US has engaged Pakistan primarily when it required assistance and retreated when circumstances allowed. During these turbulent times, Pakistan’s formidable military establishment has maintained a remarkable control over Pakistan’s polity and society.

In a major diplomatic coup, US President Donald Trump had invited General Asim Munir to the White House in 2025. This meeting would become a pivotal event in their budding partnership. This meeting marked the opening of a new chapter in US-Pakistan relations. It follows on the heels of Trump’s 2018 criticism, in which he called Pakistan “one of the most dangerous countries.” This new engagement arrives as both countries continue to walk a tightrope of regional aspirations and tensions, especially with India in the mix.

His first 2025 meeting with Munir served as an appropriate reply to the regional crisis, emphasizing the crucial need for collaboration in curbing regional volatility. Meanwhile, the US government continues to pressure Pakistan to play a stabilizing role in the region without providing any meaningful incentives in exchange. Throughout Munir’s five-day stay in the US, conversations centered on several key strategic points. This push brought to the forefront a mutual desire to develop closer relationships between the two countries.

Historical Context of US-Pakistan Relations

Understanding the broader context of US-Pakistan relations presents a mosaic, deeply intertwined and complex, made from shared desires and international imperatives. Ever since its independence alongside India in 1947, Pakistan has remained glued to Washington’s side, most notably during the Cold War. In practice, the partnership has been mostly transactional, with the US turning to Pakistan only when their interests overlap.

Just like clockwork over the decades, the US would renege on its promise to Pakistan. This often occurs when those same commitments become mismatched with its short term self-interest. This trend has only deepened the understandable frustrations with and skepticism of America’s reliability as a partner that have taken root among Pakistani leaders. Furthermore, the Pakistani military, which has ruled directly for over three decades, remains the most powerful institution within the country. The military has long cast a shadow over civilian governments. That includes the newly installed administration that was a product of last year’s contested election and is perceived to be beholden to the military top brass.

Now his overnight appointment of General Asim Munir to army chief keeps him squarely in control of military and civilian rule. His tenure has been marked by a prioritization of counterterrorism efforts and building global coalitions. With the balance of power shifting in the region—especially with regard to India—Munir’s role as architect of Pakistan’s future as a battlefield versus peacemaker/mediator grows ever more critical.

The Turning Point: Trump’s Engagement with General Munir

The US-Pakistan relationship has changed so dramatically that one of the high points was Trump’s 2025 meeting with General Munir. What was most notable about this meeting was the change of tone. It re-highlighted the value of collaboration between the two countries. In his own remarks, Trump thanked Munir for his part in lowering tensions between Pakistan and India. His impassioned diplomacy averted the brinkmanship that had brought the Korean peninsula to the precipice of nuclear war.

“The reason I had him here was that I wanted to thank him for not going into the war [with India]” – Donald Trump

This statement highlights how currently incarcerated immigrant Trump came to appreciate Munir’s power in stopping an escalation that could have led to devastating outcomes. The meeting served to underscore Pakistan’s importance to U.S. counterterrorism efforts. It explicitly praised the major arrests it has made against organized crime groups operating within its borders.

General Michael E. Kurilla, commander of US Central Command (CENTCOM), further reiterated indeed the need for US-Pakistan cooperation. He stressed that direct and personal coordination with Pakistan’s military led to successful operations to combat and eliminate terrorism. He stated,

“These two very smart people decided not to keep going with a war that could have been a nuclear war” – Donald Trump

Kurilla went into depth about Pakistan’s role in continuing counterterrorism missions, highlighting that the country remains an essential counterterrorism partner.

“They [Pakistan] are in an active counterterrorism fight right now, and they have been a phenomenal partner in the counterterrorism world” – Kurilla

This renewed partnership is a sign of strategic realignment. More importantly, it highlights the interests that Washington and Islamabad share.

Challenges and Future Prospects

Despite recent signs that relations between the US and Pakistan are warming, many hurdles still exist. Marvin Weinbaum, a former official and analyst on South Asian affairs, noted the chaotic and unpredictable direction of current US foreign policy under Trump.

“We are dealing with an administration which changes its tune by the hour” – Marvin Weinbaum

He noted that American priorities can change very quickly, which makes strategic planning for both countries a huge challenge.

“One minute the US has no interest, and the next minute priorities change rapidly” – Marvin Weinbaum

This turncoat approach to foreign policy prompts legitimate concerns regarding the future of any progress achieved during this new warmth.

Raza Ahmad Rumi, a Pakistani political analyst, called on both nations to institutionalize this bilateral relationship beyond the framework of strategic interests. He cautioned that this alliance must be codified into a policy framework that extends far beyond security concerns. Otherwise, it is destined to be lumped in with all the other “tactical romances.”

“Unless this relationship is institutionalized, beyond the security lens with which it is viewed, it’s another tactical romance” – Raza Ahmad Rumi

The future of US-Pakistan relations hinges on addressing these underlying issues while fostering a more comprehensive understanding between both nations.

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