Recent polling data from outreach shows a remarkable change in public opinion in Mexico on the desirability of new economic partnerships. Today, 45% of Mexicans would prefer to deepen economic relationships with China rather than the US. This trend signals a sea change in how they view global partnerships. This is a major jump from 37% in 2019 and only 15% in 2015. These shifting preferences are indicators of larger geopolitical trends and attitudes toward international partnerships.
The increasing desire to move closer to China shows the contradictory nature of U.S.-China relations. Further, it sheds light on the unique obstacles that previous U.S. administrations have encountered.
Changing Perceptions in Mexico
So it’s not too surprising that Mexicans are coming to prefer China over the U.S. This legislative shift marks a sea change in how Congress views economic alliances. The latest survey shows that nearly half of respondents prioritize strong ties with China, underscoring a trend that has developed over recent years. In 2015, just 15 percent supported closer relations with China, making clear just how much public opinion has changed in these six short years.
There are many reasons that this evolution is taking place. Greater market access to China and worries about the U.S. being more aggressive in the region under Biden’s predecessor further contribute. The increased sensitivities focused largely on tariffs and trade wars that pervaded the Donald Trump presidency surely colored these views.
“For the last few years … many people have preferred the U.S. to China by a sizable margin.” – Laura Silver
Canadians’ Views on China
Back in Canada, a major shift is occurring among the public. A recent national poll found that positive opinions of China among Canadians have declined by 13 points. This shift comes on the heels of frosty Canada/China relations. In particular, it originates from the wrongful detentions of Canadians Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig beginning in 2018. The political environment is still tense as Canadians struggle with their country’s treatment by and relations with China and the United States.
Other economic shocks
Also under Trump, Canada was hurt by large tariff increases on most imports. Fentanyl Trump wasn’t just targeting China, but doing the same to Canada and Mexico with duties, based on the pretext of combating fentanyl trafficking. His 10% tariffs on almost all countries, which he kept in place for the rest of his presidency, added to the climate of uncertainty about future trade relationships.
“That reflects both a rising view of Xi and a quite dramatically negative view of Trump.” – Laura Silver
Confidence in Leadership
When looking at perceptions of global leadership, just 26% of people surveyed said they have any confidence in Chinese President Xi Jinping. By comparison, only 22% said they were confident in then-U.S. President Donald Trump. Perhaps that is why this disparity can point to both a greater dissatisfaction with U.S. leadership and an acceptance of China’s rising power.
Trump’s tariffs – largely on steel and aluminum – represented a key departure from U.S. trade policy. He wanted to turn global trade tides and address what he saw as unfair treatment of American businesses. His administration’s approach to international relations created tensions that resonated across borders, affecting opinions on both sides of the North American continent.
The poll results reveal a concerning trend for U.S. interests in the region, as both Canada and Mexico reassess their priorities amidst evolving geopolitical landscapes.
