Under the previous administration, former President Donald Trump made some pretty outlandish claims about U.S. military shooting down drug-trafficking boats in the Caribbean. He claimed that the strikes were responsible for saving “at least 100,000 lives,” attributing this figure to his efforts against what he described as boats “loaded with enough drugs to kill 25 to 50 thousand people.” Experts have vigorously rebutted these assertions. In so doing, they paint them as alarmist, hyperbolic, and disconnected from the reality of today’s drug crisis in the United States.
Trump asserted that each vessel struck by U.S. military power was associated with the killing of roughly 25,000 Americans. In support of this claim, he then proceeded to make six statements. He stated, “Every one of those boats is responsible for the death of 25,000 American people, and the destruction of families.” This claim fits perfectly into his larger narrative of fighting drug traffickers and saving American lives.
Since early September, Trump has ordered no less than four such strikes against vessels allegedly engaged in drug-trafficking. These vessels are thought to be operating out of Venezuela. He emphasized the significance of these actions, claiming that they had a direct positive impact on public safety: “I probably saved at least 100,000 lives, American lives – Canadian lives – by taking out all those boats coming in.”
Public health and epidemiology experts have warned of major flaws in Trump’s math. Carl Latkin, a professor of health at the Johns Hopkins University School of Public Health, issued a strong condemnation of the former president’s numbers. In fact, he called them “absurd.” More than that, he said, Trump’s claims don’t recognize the realities of drug trafficking and addiction in America.
According to provisional federal data, nearly 82,000 Americans died from drug overdoses in the last year for which that data is available—2024. That figure just counts overdoses from all drugs. Finally, this figure undermines Trump’s assertion that his military actions in the region could have prevented such a loss of life. Latkin further remarked, “He’s claiming that he’s solved the overdose mortality crisis with four boat strikes, and that does not have any semblance of reality.”
Experts now claim that smuggling fentanyl is not a big deal in the Caribbean. Fentanyl has quickly become the leading threat in overdose deaths. Almost all the illicit fentanyl that makes it into the United States does so by way of Mexico. It’s solely U.S. citizens who are responsible for smuggling it across that border. This new reality casts into serious doubt the effectiveness of simply targeting vessels tied to Venezuelan drug trafficking under such disclaimer.
Senior health researcher Chelsea Shover, an epidemiologist, explained the myth about lethal doses of fentanyl. She pointed out that most people who purchase and consume fentanyl are already fentanyl tolerant. As a result, the amount needed for a lethal overdose is usually much greater than what the estimates from the government indicate. “Most people who use illicitly manufactured fentanyl do so on purpose, repeatedly,” Shover explained.
Allegations that an individual Venezuelan drug boat has killed tens of thousands of Americans are not factually supported. Experts emphasize that calculations regarding potential deaths often rely on scenarios involving individuals without prior exposure or tolerance to fentanyl.
As national conversation persists over drug policy and policies of intervention, Trump’s assertions would make a perfect target for criticism. Many observers argue that addressing the complex drug crisis requires a comprehensive understanding of drug trafficking dynamics rather than simplified narratives centered on military action.
