Over the past 15 months, Israel has actively targeted Iran-allied groups in Lebanon and Gaza, while launching strikes in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. This regional tension underscores the complexities surrounding the nuclear negotiations with Iran. Amidst this backdrop, Saudi Arabia has emerged as a potential mediator between the United States and Iran, aiming to facilitate a new nuclear agreement.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei of Iran has been vocal about his opposition to talks with the United States. He criticized the U.S. for withdrawing from the 2015 nuclear deal, describing negotiations with Washington as neither "smart, wise, nor honorable." This stance highlights the strained relations between Tehran and the Trump administration following the U.S.’s exit from the agreement.
A year after the U.S. withdrawal, Saudi Arabia's oil facilities were targeted in a significant drone and missile attack. The incident underscored the increasing instability in the region and highlighted Saudi Arabia's concerns about Iran's potential nuclear ambitions. Saudi officials have expressed apprehensions that a cornered Tehran might be more inclined to develop a nuclear weapon, which could further destabilize the Middle East.
Saudi Arabia maintains a robust relationship with former President Donald Trump, who hinted at the kingdom as a possible destination for his first foreign trip as president. During this visit, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) could play a pivotal role in mediating between the U.S. and Russia. Trump's suggestion aligns with Saudi Arabia's strategic recalibration of its foreign policy to prioritize economic interests and mitigate regional instability.
Saudi officials viewed the 2015 nuclear agreement as a significant achievement, believing it brought tangible benefits to Riyadh. The cessation of Houthi attacks on Saudi soil since the deal is one such benefit. However, Saudi Arabia privately harbored resentment over the Obama administration's perceived neglect of its concerns regarding Tehran's regional activities. Despite publicly welcoming the 2015 agreement, Riyadh swiftly rejected any plans involving Palestinian displacement following Trump's 2018 withdrawal.
Saudi Arabia remains open to mediating between the Trump administration and Iran to forge a new deal aimed at limiting Tehran's nuclear program. This potential mediation allows Saudi Arabia to distance itself from Trump's maximum pressure campaign against Tehran, signaling a shift in its diplomatic approach.
"Signaling willingness to mediate between President Trump and Iran allows the kingdom to tacitly distance itself from Trump’s maximum pressure campaign against Tehran," noted Firas Maksad, although he added that "this is unlikely to develop beyond diplomatic signaling."
Former President Trump expressed his own vision for future negotiations with Iran, emphasizing a peaceful resolution.
"I want Iran to be a great and successful Country, but one that cannot have a Nuclear Weapon. Reports that the United States, working in conjunction with Israel, is going to blow Iran into smithereens,' ARE GREATLY EXAGGERATED," stated Donald Trump.
"I would much prefer a Verified Nuclear Peace Agreement, which will let Iran peacefully grow and prosper. We should start working on it immediately, and have a big Middle East Celebration when it is signed and completed. God Bless the Middle East!" he added.
Saudi Arabia perceives further regional instability as an impediment to its progress and has thus recalibrated its foreign policy to bolster its economic interests. The kingdom's willingness to mediate reflects its desire to maintain strategic stability in the region while fostering economic growth.
Iran's mission to the United Nations in New York refrained from commenting on Saudi Arabia's proposal for mediation. This silence highlights the intricate dynamics at play in any potential negotiations between Tehran and Washington.
