Russian forces continue to make incremental advances into Ukrainian territory. They suffer staggering casualties and almost unanimous rejection by Ukrainian soldiers. In recent weeks, Russian President Vladimir Putin has ruled out or called off ceasefire negotiations with an iron fist. Instead, he has significantly increased military bombardment of the entire region.
Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander-in-chief of Ukrainian ground forces, underscored this, in stating that Russians lack “the strategic initiative. The continuing contest for advantage on the battlefield is plain. Ukrainian defenders are urgently engaged in countering Russian open-field assaults, as Moscow’s troops corrode Ukrainian defenses with deliberate, systematic gains.
Over the last month, Russian forces have been descending with nightly barrages of drones and missiles. These attacks have focused on the civilian infrastructure throughout much of Ukraine, deliberately prioritizing energy infrastructure. The compounded effect has resulted in deteriorating conditions with impacts on even the most basic services and a further strain on an already burdened Ukrainian government.
That’s probably about the amount of land Russia has taken in the last month and it’s a big overestimate. That’s about one-half of what they received over the last four-week period. These advances do so at a great expense. Ukrainian military command claims that almost 14,000 Russian troops have been killed or injured in the Pokrovsk sector since late August. This staggering number underscores the human cost of the persistence of conflict.
Though losses like these have been significant, Russian forces seem bent on securing what they can before the bitter winter descends. Ukrainian military officials have reported a dramatic increase in the use of guided aerial bombs. They reported a record 268 bombs dropped on just Friday. This dramatic increase in bombardment has brought about renewed speculation about the sustainability of Russia’s military campaign.
According to expert on Russian military strategy Dara Massicot, Moscow has found innovative new ways to use drones more effectively. Moscow has found innovative tactics when using drones to find and kill Ukrainian troops. They are going after Ukrainian assets, turning what were once their own vulnerabilities into major advantages. This is a first for us,” Massicot said. This change highlights Russia’s ability and desire to be enterprising and creative in its warfare approaches.
According to industry analysts, Russia’s refining capacity has suffered catastrophic damage. They say that as much as one-fifth of this capacity has been impacted. While these changes would be only temporary, they might have long-term implications for Russia’s ability to sustain its military efforts.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has indicated that Russia may soon face diminishing returns from its current military strategies. “It is likely hitting diminishing returns, which may compel the Kremlin to adopt an alternative approach,” they stated. Analysts are forecasting greater use of active reserve members. This collective endeavor is necessary to continue supporting Ukraine’s ongoing offensive as well as future combat operations.
In addition to these military challenges, Russian regions have begun reducing the generous sign-on bonuses previously offered to attract recruits. This change could be a sign of increasing challenges in maintaining troop numbers at high levels of attrition. According to some reports, the fighting has cost the lives of some 250,000 Russian servicemen. This immense loss has added to a cumulative human toll of more than 950,000 deaths.
Russian forces have made similar gains to the north and east of Kupiansk. This small town has been held in the crosshairs for more than a year now. The protracted violence has rendered whole regions ghost towns and civilians at the mercy of violence.
Even with the tides turning like this for Russian forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, head of the ground forces, is undeterred. “Ukrainian warriors have ceased the enemy’s spring-summer offensive campaign,” he affirmed. His comment serves as a reminder of the extraordinary courage of the Ukrainian soldiers, who still are defending their country with an admirable fierceness.
