His concerns, echoed by former council leader John Davies, have sent up an alarm flare. He is especially worried about the loss of young people from rural communities such as Pembrokeshire. He cautions that the area is “haemorrhaging” its young people, creating a troubling cycle of declining rural residents. Davies stresses that at the very time schools are getting more empty, healthcare facilities are getting more full, adding further pressures to communities already facing marginalization.
Pembrokeshire Council has launched an aggressive consultation on the closure of Ysgol Clydau in Tegryn. Now they’re looking to close Manorbier VC School, Tenby due to dwindling numbers. Actual data shows that there has been a massive drop in the number of primary school pupils in the Preseli constituency, decreasing by 19% between 2015-2024. In comparison, Tenby has experienced a much more modest decline of 6.6% over the same timeframe. Since 1996, Pembrokeshire’s schools have seen the physical loss of over 2000 students. This drop has led to a 12% decrease in their white student bodies.
Davies spoke to the long-lasting effects of these trends. He forecast that the population of people aged 15 years and younger in Pembrokeshire will decrease by 11.7% over the next ten years. However, the Welsh government forecast that pupil numbers may drop by almost 50,000 across Wales by 2040. This major demographic shift should raise alarm bells for the long-term viability and sustainability of our rural communities.
Though Pembrokeshire has its own unique challenges, many other councils across Wales are already reeling from the effect. Carmarthenshire Council admitted it has 17 schools with less than 50 pupils. Caroline Farnden, a parent with two children at Ysgol Clydau, expressed her concerns about the school’s dwindling enrollment of just 34 pupils.
“You’ll lose the community feel because it’s taking everything out of the community,” – Caroline Farnden
Farnden further questioned the future of local amenities, stating, “What else are they going to do? Are they going to close the hall as well? The pub? There’ll be nothing for people in the village.”
Davies expanded on one dangerous trend, pointing out that for the first time in three decades social care spending has surpassed education funding. He argues that this change has exposed an unsustainable long-term demographic challenge. He decried how dollars have flowed toward urban hulks at the expense of rural towns.
“We’re seeing investment in town regeneration and cities, and we’ve seen investment in rail infrastructure in south-east Wales. But there’s never a mention of what’s happening in investment terms in rural north Pembrokeshire or not even in west Wales,” – John Davies
The obstacles that rural education must overcome are further exacerbated by larger societal currents. Laura Doel, from the school leaders’ union NAHT, outlined what she called a significant problem. Declining birth rates and families relocating to improve employment options are having a strong impact on school enrollment figures. Especially with funding distributed on a per pupil basis, she added that shrinking student bodies only put more stress on school budgets that are already stretched thin.
“When birth rates fall and families move in search of employment opportunities, this inevitably has an impact upon school rolls. With funding allocated on a per pupil basis, this further reduces school budgets which are already under severe pressure after years of under-investment,” – Laura Doel
Amanda Hill-Dixon of the Wales Centre for Public Policy described how these trends form a “doom loop.” She painted a picture that the loss of more services for families in turn forces additional out-migration from rural communities.
“So what we have in rural Wales is younger people, and families and children moving out of rural Wales to cities in Wales or outside of Wales altogether,” – Amanda Hill-Dixon
She noticed an increasing trend of seniors moving to rural communities. That shift is quickly transforming the age, racial, ethnic, and cultural demographic landscape of metros.
