Portugal is preparing for its third general election in less than three years. Yet on May 18, 2024, the nation may find itself at an existential crisis of sorts, one that has already sparked significant political realignment. This new housing crisis has made cities like Lisbon and Porto much harder to afford for young people and professionals. Fast-ascending rents have forced small businesses to shutter and pushed low-income residents to either spend an increasing share of their income on rent or leave their homes. The crisis has raised fundamental and critical questions about the country’s direction. The number of young people departing is staggering, and youth emigration is a hot button issue.
Against this backdrop of daunting economic headwinds, the political landscape is shifting fast, with new parties emerging, rising, and shaking the foundations of long-standing political structures. The right-wing party Chega made headlines recently by winning 50 parliamentary seats in the last elections, reflecting a growing acceptance of far-right ideologies among the electorate. Looking down the barrel of another election as Portugal is, fully 20 percent of voters are still undecided, making for a likely divided mandate to come.
Housing Crisis Deepens
As Portugal’s continued housing crisis threatens the lives of countless citizens, public pressure rages on. Young professionals are being forced out, as the cost of renting in many large metropolitan areas has increased to unsustainable levels.
In Lisbon and Porto, the capital and second city, respectively, of this small country, the cost of living has increased dramatically, pricing an entire generation out of their homes. The consequences go further than just people; small businesses are shutting down as financial pressures increase. High inflation and rising rents are creating very difficult conditions for many low-income tenants. They are either lurching into default on their rent payments or meeting the cruel fate of eviction.
These growing challenges have led to cries of alarm and calls for reform from nearly every part of our industry and society. Citizens are getting more organized and active around the demand for an all-in housing policy, because what we have today is simply not sustainable.
Demographic Challenges and Emigration
Portugal’s demographic landscape presents additional complications. Couple these with the country’s declining birth rate, and the burden of an ageing population, and one can see why many observers worry about the country’s long-term economic viability.
It’s compounded by the fact that so many of them are fleeing their home countries. Nearly 30 percent of the population aged 15 to 39 currently resides abroad. This trend not only saps the current workforce, but chips away at future growth capacity by reducing the supply of labor.
Table from Axios Visuals
Political leaders feel the heat to respond to these demographic challenges, especially with elections right around the corner. Anxious voters are looking for answers on how to get their communities back on economic track. They want to inspire youth to remain in Portugal rather than pursuing opportunities elsewhere.
Rising Right-Wing Sentiment
The political milieu around the climate in Portugal has changed drastically in recent years, with pro-right sentiments penetrating the electorate rapidly. Meanwhile, Chega has skyrocketed under the leadership of rockstar-extremist André Ventura. The party now polls around 18 percent nationally, benefiting from immigration and minority issues emerging as major concerns for the public.
Other political observers point out that this growth is symptomatic of a larger movement towards intolerance in society.
“A lot of people who vote for them already held the ideas they espoused, long before the party actually appeared,” – Vicente Valentim.
Established centre-right parties are busily attempting to recover from these movements’ advances. To placate these voters, they have no choice but to bend over backwards to appease them by veering even farther right. Moreover, this has produced complicity and fruitful alliances with radical right forces, thus questioning the future of democracy in Portugal.
It wasn’t always this way, especially when it comes to public opinion on immigration. Specifically, right-wing parties whipped up fears against agricultural and shop minority workers from India/Pakistan/Bangladesh.
“Citizens and politicians feeling at greater ease to express extreme right-wing ideas in public,” – Valentin.
Leading up to and following the last election, this general shift has flamed the fire on hot-take issues including immigration and minority rights.
“There is greater polarization around specific issues such as immigration and minority rights, and, of course, the dilemma of how the more traditional centre right deals with the far right,” – Valentin.
Political Landscape and Future Prospects
As Portugal heads into its now third consecutive election, this time of Portuguese annoyance at the direction the country has taken. The nation has benefited from relative stability for decades. This stability is provided by a multiparty system, where centre-left Socialist Party (PS) and centre-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) alternatively share power.
Recent years have brought a historical flood of new parties into parliament that have drastically changed the political landscape.
“But now there’s been a lot of changes in a short period of time, with more and more new parties having made it into parliament,” – Valentin.
The rise of radical right parties such as Chega represents a new challenge that old political machines need to learn how to work around. Though these parties become legitimate actors through power-sharing agreements, worry lingers about their long-term consequences on Portuguese democracy.
“Power-sharing agreements with the extreme right legitimise those parties, without actually bringing any long-term gains for the centre right,” – Vicente Valentim.
As election day draws near, Portugal finds itself at an interesting crossroad. Voters will have to decide whether to embrace this new political paradigm or seek to restore a sense of stability that many believe has been lost amid rapid changes.
