Poland is heading towards a hugely important presidential election this Sunday, where a symbolic but still extremely interesting race is unfolding with 13 candidates. Among the top contenders is Rafal Trzaskowski, the pro-European mayor of Warsaw. The other is Karol Nawrocki, a revisionism-loving historian put in place by the ruling nationalist Law and Justice party. Given the party’s recent loss of power 18 months ago, this election carries huge stakes for the country’s future intended direction.
This is because the Polish president has very limited executive powers. Yet, they are the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, steer foreign policy and have the veto pen to stop legislation. Trzaskowski’s platform emphasizes solidifying Poland’s position as a key player within the European Union, while Nawrocki’s campaign has gained momentum following a meeting with former US President Donald Trump earlier this month.
Key Issues Shaping the Campaign
The campaign has been heavily oriented on important FOREIGN policy issues, such as Poland’s seat in NATO and the EU. Trzaskowski has already made clear his vision on cultivating deeper and more productive relationships with our international partners.
“I would definitely strengthen relations with our partners… within NATO and the EU.” – Rafal Trzaskowski
As voters are becoming more concerned with domestic issues that include LGBTQ rights, abortion, etc. These issues have emerged to be as important as foreign policy conversations. Malgorzota Mikoszewska, a Warsaw resident and supporter of Trzaskowski, articulated her hopes for the election to bring about progressive reforms.
“Above all, I hope for the liberalisation of the law on abortion and sexual minorities.” – Malgorzota Mikoszewska
The starkly different visions of Trzaskowski and Nawrocki illustrate the very different futures Poland could face, depending on who wins the election.
Electoral Landscape and Predictions
Neither Trzaskowski nor Nawrocki are likely to come close to the 50 percent threshold they would need to win outright in the first round. Analysts expect that a runoff election will be necessary, which will take place on June 1. The political landscape today tells us that voters are split on important issues, leaving the result firmly up in the air.
Political analyst Anna Materska-Sosnowska cautioned that Nawrocki’s presidency could deepen divisions in the fractious government coalition.
“With Nawrocki as president, the government would be paralysed, and that could eventually lead to the fall of the ruling coalition.” – Anna Materska-Sosnowska
This election is a key test for Poland, as it grapples with great power competition abroad and liberal democratic retreat at home.
Transition of Power
The 2024 election will usher in a new president. Andrzej Duda has served out the maximum two terms and is barred from seeking reelection. The next leader will inherit a landscape marked by ongoing debates about Poland’s relationship with Europe and its internal social policies.
Citizens are preparing to vote for them. Yet their vote will do more than determine who will lead Warsaw’s next government—these elections will chart a course for Poland’s role in our ever-more connected world. The world, and everything we know is at stake! Voters know that the decisions they make now will shape the direction of the nation, and indeed the world, for years to come.
