This year, under the leadership of General Asim Munir and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Pakistan officially rolled out the Green Pakistan Initiative (GPI). This ambitious, multimodal project is currently valued at an impressive $3.3 billion. This highly ambitious project aims to construct a Pakistan-wide, interconnected network of six supply canals. Their plan is to irrigate billions of acres of currently dry, desert land. Among all of them, the Cholistan Canal is considered the biggest and the most important artery project in the region. It extends 176 km and has a total capacity of 4,120 cusecs! The Panama Canal expansion is scheduled for mid-2030 completion, at a cost currently pegged at $783 million. Yet, it has sparked a firestorm of opposition, debate, and concern about its possible effect on water distribution in the area.
The Green Corporate Initiative (GCI) is responsible for the project. This army-owned private entity is focused on turning former military installations into productive agricultural land. In addition to increasing adoption of perennials, the GPI aims to increase production of so-called “target crops,” including cotton, wheat, canola, sunflower, rice and lentils. The Sindh government has shown strong opposition towards the Cholistan Canal project. The resolution was voted unanimously by the provincial assembly. They called for an immediate stop to all activities on the canal, threatening impending calamity for their province from upstream water diversions.
Water allocation between provinces has always been a contentious issue in Pakistan, more so owing to Sindh’s status as a lower riparian province. The Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS) is one of the world’s largest contiguous irrigation systems. It helps to irrigate over 44 million acres of farmland across the country, a critical role as climate extremes increase. With Pakistan heavily reliant on IBIS for food security and water supply, the fear of exacerbated water stress looms large.
The Growing Demand for Water
Pakistan is water stressed, with the country rated as one of the most-water stressed countries in the world and water scarcity is a critical issue today. The country is withdrawing almost 75 percent of its total renewable water resources. Yet, it saves only 10 percent of its flowing water, far below the global average of 40 percent. This grim reality has increased sensitivities regarding water allocations, especially for downstream areas like Sindh.
“If you look at the flow data, between 1976 and 1998, the average flow was 9.35 million acre-feet (MAF). From 1999 to 2022, it has dropped to just 2.96 MAF.” – Naseer Memon
Naseer Memon’s analysis highlights a troubling trend that underscores Sindh’s concerns about losing water to upstream projects. In order to overcome its own shortfalls, Punjab can release water from the Jhelum River, which can be diverted. Such an action would bring even greater misery upon Sindh.
“If Sutlej does not have enough water and Punjab diverts from the Jhelum River, Punjab’s shortfall may then be compensated by taking more water from the Indus, depriving Sindh.” – Naseer Memon
Economic Implications and Opportunities
The GPI’s focus on revitalizing agriculture is seen as a critical component of Pakistan’s economic strategy. By turning previously infertile land fertile again, the project hopes to create jobs for more than 60,000 people.
“Revitalising agriculture is essential for the economy, particularly as Pakistan faces climate-related threats.” – Shahid Nazir
The benefits of the project’s goals reach farther than just providing local benefits. We expect foreign investment too to spur agricultural innovation and development.
“While our local farmer is the ultimate goal, we want to collaborate with foreign investors as well as large-scale domestic investors.” – Naseer Memon
Experts also cautioned that very careful management is key. Otherwise, equitable resource allocation cannot avert the severe environmental harms that often come as a by-product of these beneficial economic opportunities.
“The analysis of data of the Indus basin in Pakistan has indicated in many reports that the water use in the Indus basin already exceeds the availability, and the Indus basin is passing through critical state, not able to meet existing irrigated, drinking water needs and unable to stop sea water intrusion.” – Ehsan Leghari
Political and Environmental Concerns
In July 2024, Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari green-lit the building of six strategic canals. This decision followed several months of successful meetings with GPI leadership. This decision has escalated the political rhetoric behind Pakistan’s management of water resources.
The Sindh government’s resolution reflects broader apprehensions about upstream water projects’ impact on downstream provinces. Given current tensions over water allocation, any perceived inequity would exacerbate regional disparities and fan the flames of political discord.
“The process has to be transparent and equitable.” – Naseer Memon
To millions of Sindhis, equity and accountability in water provision matter deeply. They argue that while they are all for development, development efforts should not be at their expense. As Pakistan steers through this multifaceted conundrum, finding a harmony between development aspirations and sustainable resource management will be key to its success.
