Ohio, a bellwether in the integrated automobile battleground that connects Canada and the US, is at a crossroads. With former President Donald Trump’s trade policies back in the spotlight, many Ohioans are trying to figure out what it will mean for them. Trump carried his home state, Ohio, by eight points in 2016 and 2020. In 2024, he increased his margin to eleven points, changing the political landscape of the state. According to new polling, approval among residents appears to be slipping, with only 48% of residents supporting his high-profile trade tactics.
The state has historically taken advantage of the close-proximity, neighborly relationship it has with Canada, its largest export market. So far this year, Ohio has exported $21.4 billion in goods to Canada and imported $17.9 billion in Canadian products. This economic interdependence amplifies the stakes as Ohio’s auto industry faces risks due to Trump’s trade policies.
Ohio’s auto sector, like many other industries, is plugged into a wider transnational supply chain. The additional tariffs on other critical imports, like steel and aluminum, have increased costs of doing business for manufacturers. As Michael Gorman, another professor at the University of Dayton, pointed out, that’s a very important distinction. He told me that when facing unpredictable orders, the next round of orders becomes even less certain as all players begin to guess what others will choose. Given the extreme uncertainty right now, we don’t really know what the future looks like,” he added.
Local businesses are already feeling the pressure. Hoster Brewing, Columbus’s oldest brewery, spoke about their shrinking profit margins as they faced rising costs from tariffs on key ingredients. Ian Hansford, a representative of the brewery, expressed frustration: “Our costs have gone up about 30 percent just to craft beer from start to finish. The song and dance around the American government has to stop. Unfortunately, it’s coming at a steep cost to the American people.
There are plenty of small business owners opposed to the tax — such as Springfield’s Mark Patterson — who view an opportunity. Patterson has seen a resulting increase in orders and thinks that it’s indicative of an American public that values homegrown goods. I’m still hopeful that it’s too early and that stuff still has to shake out,” he said. And I think it’s sort of a wait-and-see at this point.
Beyond Ohio’s long history of supporting the automotive industry, that industry is rapidly taking on a new role. Familiar American brands like Procter & Gamble and Goodyear Tire can trace their origins to the Buckeye state. Procter & Gamble, founded in 1837 by two German brothers-in-law, was the first, but Goodyear opened a plant in Akron in 1898. The state boasts significant contributions to popular culture with chains like Wendy’s and KitchenAid, which assembled its first stand mixer in Springfield in 1919.
General Electric’s recent announcement to invest $3 billion to expand manufacturing in Ohio and create 1,000 jobs over five years offers a glimmer of hope amid these uncertainties. Such a move would make a big difference in supporting good local jobs and ensuring Ohio’s industrial heart stays strong.
Either way, the fragility of our smaller firms makes in a more critical concern. Gorman further elaborated that most manufacturers in the on-highway vehicle parts industry do not have the economic fortitude to survive the trade storms brewing. The future of tariffs as a policy tool remains uncertain as they are susceptible to changes in demand and supply chain.
So, as Ohio finds its way through this tricky economic time, in these last twelve years, the state’s historical heritage as a swing state has changed to a more solid Republican state. The effects of Trump’s tariff policies are felt most personally in its affected industries and communities.
