This Saturday, though, the US and Iran will meet indirectly for the first time since the election of Donald Trump. The announcement followed yesterday’s joint press conference in which President Donald Trump stood alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The second round of discussions will be held in Oman. A U.S. delegation, led by trilateral negotiator Steve Witkoff, will be taking part in separate negotiations with an Iranian delegation led by Abbas Araghchi. The announcement caught Netanyahu off guard, illustrating the goofiness and contingency that much of Middle Eastern diplomacy has become infused with.
In case you’ve missed it, U.S. airstrikes in Yemen are really heating up. They particularly focus on the Houthi rebel group, which is Iran’s last remaining ally in the region. In response to this conflict brewing, the U.S. has puffed its chest, demanding the “complete dismantlement” of Iran’s uranium enrichment infrastructural program. Tehran, though, has categorically rebuffed this demand. Iran has consistently defended its right to pursue a nuclear program, arguing that it is vitally important to Iranian national security and the scientific progress of the country.
Context of the Talks
The talks are taking place against the backdrop of a historic new regional landscape for Iran. The Islamic Republic’s ability to project power has suffered a major blow. This drop can largely be attributed to Israeli military action against the militias they have allied themselves with. Over the past few months, Israel has launched over a dozen strikes in an attempt to cripple Iranian influence within the borders of Syria and Iraq. As a result, Iran ends up in a very dangerous place. As it reenters nuclear diplomacy, these stakes have shockingly worsened since the last round of negotiations broke down.
Under the original nuclear deal in 2015, Iran agreed to enrich uranium no higher than 3.67% purity in return for sanctions relief. As you might have seen in the news lately, Iran has considerably increased its uranium enrichment levels. They are now over 60%—dangerously close to weapons-grade purity. Trust between the two nations had run dry, which has made these hard-fought negotiations even tougher. Both parties have found themselves in an environment shot through with distrust and old wounds.
“Everybody agrees that doing a deal would be preferable to doing the obvious.” – President Donald Trump
As the clock ticks down to the talks, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi emphasized that the “ball is in America’s court,” signaling Tehran’s readiness to engage but its expectation for the U.S. to build trust. As Araghchi stressed, indirect negotiations are a tactical decision not an ideological stand.
Economic Implications
As for the intended immediate political ramifications, these negotiations haven’t just failed politically, they’ve had an almost more immediately economic effect. Following announcement of the talks, Iran’s currency, the rial, skyrocketed in value. This all happened just weeks after it had reached all-time lows. A possible diplomatic resolution might prove beneficial in stabilizing Iran’s increasingly floundering economy. It has been hit hard by the recent and continuing sanctions and increased tensions.
We have to build trust between each other’s countries, and that requires discussion.” Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s message was loud and clear. He stated, “We don’t avoid talks; it’s the breach of promises that has caused issues for us so far.” This claim highlights the fact that Iran is tense in seeking any clear guarantees from the U.S. as both sides get ready for this tricky talks.
Former Iranian diplomat Hossein Mousavian told us that he was feeling cautiously optimistic about the discussion format. If the early indirect discussions are fruitful, as he hopes, he thinks direct negotiations could begin as early as this fall. This move demonstrates a modest but positive approach from both parties as they seek to develop a joint path through their churning waters of disagreement.
Regional Reactions
The upcoming negotiations have already attracted mixed approaches from area actors, especially Israel. Netanyahu’s surprise at the announcement indicates concerns over Iran’s potential concessions and what that could mean for Israeli security. He said if there was a way for diplomatic negotiations to bring about a deal like Libya’s disarmament, “I think everybody would like that.” Yet at the same time, he stressed skepticism about Iran’s intent to fully live up to it.
“If it can be done diplomatically, in a full way, the way it was done in Libya, I think that would be a good thing.” – Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
Two people with knowledge of the situation told Haaretz that these negotiations may not be in the best interest of Israel. This shocking disclosure only complicates an already tangled and confusing web of regional alliances and enmities.
Meanwhile, U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff highlighted Israel’s recent military successes against Iranian positions, stating, “Remember, the Iranians’ air defenses have been eviscerated by that attack from Israel. They’re open to attack today.” This articulated the prevailing sense of alarm over Iranian capabilities and intentions in the region today.
