Myanmar's military government is poised to conduct an election that many experts and opposition leaders predict will be a "sham." This comes on the heels of a tumultuous period marked by violent uprisings, a contentious census, and significant losses suffered by the military since late 2023. Following the ousting of Aung San Suu Kyi's government three months ago, the regime is attempting to assert its authority amid an escalating civil conflict.
The military, which seized power in February 2021, is mandated by its own 2008 constitution to hold elections within six months of lifting a state of emergency. With the emergency scheduled to end on July 31, 2024, the military is under pressure to organize elections despite facing serious challenges. The political climate remains highly volatile, with pro-democracy resistance groups and ethnic armed organizations increasingly viewing the military as a legitimate target.
In a recent statement, National Unity Government (NUG) spokesperson Zaw Kyaw dismissed the upcoming polls as a mere façade. He stated that the main goal for 2025 is to eliminate the military dictatorship, reiterating concerns that any election under the current regime lacks legitimacy.
In this context, the recent census conducted in Myanmar has been described as one of the most contentious and deadly ever undertaken. Reports indicate that nine enumerators were arrested and held for over a month by People’s Defense Force (PDF) fighters in the southern Tanintharyi Region. Additionally, members of the public who participated in the census were reportedly coerced into providing personal information, often under threat. Observers have criticized the military's claims regarding the census, with Richard Horsey from the Crisis Group calling it an "utter, abject failure," while the junta insists it was a "marvellous success."
The military's grip on power appears to be weakening, with significant setbacks reported since late 2023. As it stands, the military controls less than half of Myanmar's territory, fully counting populations in only 145 out of 330 townships. This raises questions about the feasibility and legitimacy of conducting elections in a country where large segments of the population live in areas held by democratic resistance groups.
“The junta produced absolutely no credible data,” – Khin Ohmar
Horsey further remarked on the situation, stating, “It’s going to be a violent, messy, incomplete process,” while highlighting that many would not recognize it as a legitimate election. The military's attempts at stability are undermined by ongoing violence; for instance, seven soldiers providing security for census takers were killed by an explosive device in early October.
China, a key ally of Myanmar's military government, has been pressing for elections to take place. However, regional bodies like the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) do not support this move amid the ongoing civil war. The international community remains skeptical of the regime's intentions and capabilities to conduct a fair electoral process.
“Any public participation is guaranteed to have been coerced by the military junta,” – Khin Ohmar
The military has responded to these criticisms by claiming that “there are still more tasks to be done to hold the general election successfully,” emphasizing that stability and peace are prerequisites for a free and fair electoral process. However, many experts remain unconvinced about the prospects for genuine elections under such conditions.
Bo Sea, an activist with ties to resistance groups, commented on those participating in the election process: “We consider these people as collaborating with the junta’s election process as accomplices.” He emphasized that their involvement aligns them with the junta’s agenda.
The upcoming elections are set against a backdrop of ongoing conflict and resistance. The military-installed government has renewed its state of emergency multiple times since taking control in 2021. As tensions escalate and violence continues, many citizens are left wondering whether these elections will provide any hope for change or merely perpetuate the status quo.
