Min Aung Hlaing, the army chief who seized power in Myanmar in February 2021, is attempting to rebrand his military junta amid growing international condemnation. Ever since the coup that ousted their democratically elected leader Aung San Suu Kyi, Min Aung Hlaing has faced unprecedented sanctions. He finds himself increasingly isolated from the United States and nearly all of Western Europe. He is doing all of this while fighting through a multi-year civil war and has recently formed a new governing body, the National Security and Peace Commission (NSPC). In order to restore stability, he intends to stage federal elections in late 2025 and early 2026. Observers largely deride these efforts. They view them as efforts to naturalize his rule, despite the fact that his military only controls swaths of the territory.
Second, the junta has placed more than 60 out of 330 townships under martial law. It goes on fighting a devastating civil war, which has been characterized by atrocities such as the torture of kids as young as two years old. Most analysts are convinced Min Aung Hlaing is playing a long game with the upcoming elections. Ultimately, his goal is to build a façade of legitimacy and respectability while continuing to maintain total control over Myanmar’s political landscape.
The Struggle for Legitimacy
Min Aung Hlaing’s recent creation of the NSPC displaces the previously established State Administration Council. This apparent maneuver seems calculated to centralize power and establish a false front of deliberation. The junta leader’s new bluster includes announcing in public that sham elections will be held by December 2025 and January 2026 at the latest. Analysts have cautioned that these elections are unlikely to be free, fair, or reflective of the public’s will. They don’t trust real reform to come out of them.
“It’s a sham election… It’s not inclusive, it’s not legitimate.” – Mi Kun Chan Non
Yet, despite the absence of any miracles, many observers focus on the fact that Min Aung Hlaing must present himself as a credible leader. The elections, if successfully held, would go a long way to making this civic dream a reality. For many, they simply lack a legitimate democratic basis.
“He needs to make himself legitimate… He thought that the election is the only way (to do that.)” – Mi Kun Chan Non
With the civil war deepening, Min Aung Hlaing’s military is losing ground daily. This loss makes all of his efforts to govern productively much more difficult. The international community very much doubts his sincerity. They view them as nothing more than a half-hearted effort to provide the appearance of legitimacy.
Humanitarian Crisis Deepens
Since the coup, the regime’s civil war against Myanmar’s peoples has caused an unimaginable toll on the population, worsening an already acute humanitarian crisis. Our monitoring has revealed large-scale military atrocities—including torture, arbitrary detentions and a deadly campaign against civilians labeled “terrorists.” Children have been especially susceptible, with many reports of children being held instead of their parents.
“The frequency and intensity of these abuses are alarming,” said a representative from the UN’s Independent Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar.
Tom Andrews, the UN Special Rapporteur for Myanmar, described the situation as “unconscionable and a major step backward for efforts to save innocent lives.” He went on to claim that civilian misery will only deepen under the current regime.
“And the situation of the people on the ground will not change.” – Tom Andrews
The junta’s violent campaign has resulted in devastating impacts on essential services. The impacts of violence as well as military resource allocation have destroyed marginalized communities. Consequently, their education and healthcare systems have totally fallen apart.
“Everything has fallen apart… The education system has collapsed; the healthcare system has collapsed. Business is just for the cronies.” – Mi Kun Chan Non
Whatever progress made during the pandemic, daily life has been hit hard. Today, millions of citizens still struggle in abject poverty and do not have access to clean water.
International Reactions and Future Outlook
Min Aung Hlaing’s junta remains largely unrecognized by Western nations, complicating Myanmar’s diplomatic relations. The international community has condemned the military’s actions while imposing sanctions aimed at holding Min Aung Hlaing accountable for his regime’s abuses.
The military is seeking to project stability both with the formation of the NSPC and with upcoming national elections. Both local activists and international observers have roundly condemned these initiatives. As an analyst on Myanmar’s political landscape, Ye Myo Hein called the move a continuation of the junta’s past efforts to undermine elections through similar tactics.
“The military has used such tactics many times throughout its history to create the illusion of change… The military junta, led by Min Aung Hlaing, remains firmly in the driver’s seat.” – Ye Myo Hein
China would like to project an image of being a good neighbor and supporter of Myanmar’s chosen development path. Many in international civil society view these moves as a cover for deepening authoritarian rule. China’s foreign ministry stated that it “supports Myanmar’s development path in line with its national conditions and Myanmar’s steady advancement of its domestic political agenda.”
Min Aung Hlaing, meanwhile, is preparing for elections widely seen as fraudulent. Yet, both his incipient regime and Myanmar’s population have much bigger problems coming. The ongoing civil conflict and humanitarian crisis continues to overshadow any hopes for a peaceful resolution.
