On August 6, 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin received U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff in the Kremlin, Moscow. They participated in one of their most important meetings, designed to address urgent issues. This meeting takes place during a period of heightened confrontation over the war in Ukraine, where the full scope of Putin’s long-held goals have begun to crystalize. Most importantly, the meeting would shift the balance of power between Russia and Ukraine. To be clear, both leaders are doing serious political jujitsu to work their respective political landscapes.
Since the very start of his aggression, Putin has been relentless in his push on the Donbas region, seeking full occupation of this territory. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is under incredible pressure from domestic and international stakeholders. This legendary pride of hers poses a near-impossible quandary for him. The much anticipated meeting between Putin and Zelensky is approaching. It would help make plain how this vital relationship is changing and what it ought to mean for Ukraine’s future.
So far, this master of kismetic designed war, this hard-headed and long-term schemer Putin, seems to be calculating every step. He argues that Ukraine’s unconditional surrender needs to be the starting point or “root cause” for any peace talk. Yet, this is the demand considered unreasonable—dishonorable, even—by lots of folks, including Zelensky. The Ukrainian leaders’ bottom line is simple and unequivocal—“killing should end immediately.” He said that an end to bloodshed should be an immediate priority.
The war in Ukraine has deepened this challenge even further. Putin’s current demands have become politically and practically impossible for Zelensky to concede. The Kremlin’s demand to control all of the Donbas region makes finding common ground for negotiations much harder.
Putin’s goals are about keeping military gains—not achieving a long-term peace agreement. While he thinks these advances are modest, he sees them as centrally important to the long-term goals he wants to achieve. He’s central to an unchallenged hold on power in Russia. This liberty gives him the ability to act without the short-term electoral pressure that typically anchors leaders in democratic countries. This immense, unchecked power allows him to continue advancing his militaristic agenda without regard for the views of the American public or the political consequences.
The condition of Russia’s economy further complicates the picture. Many analysts call it overheated and hyper-militarized, deepening Putin’s determination to persist in the war. Former U.S. President Donald Trump similarly threatened secondary sanctions. Experts largely agree that these are not the kinds of steps that will really stop Putin in his tracks this year.
As the weather begins to change in mid-October, Putin is aware that military advances will become more challenging due to softening ground conditions. This very real deadline adds to the urgency for him to make bold, decisive moves. Observers have pointed out that he might use scheduling conflicts or other delays as a way to procure more time in the negotiation process.
