The jihadist umbrella organization Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) is currently making gains surrounding Bamako, the capital of Mali. This is all happening as violence and instability increase sharply across the nearly dozen-country strong Sahelian region. In recent weeks, the group has intensified its efforts. They began to purposely target fuel resources, including laying ambushes on tankers arriving from close and pleasant Ivory Coast and Senegal. In July, JNIM carried out a record 54 attacks across Burkina Faso. They conducted 36 attacks in Mali and seven in Niger, marking a disturbing expansion of their operations.
Created in 2017 as an alliance of jihadist groups, JNIM soon after reaffirmed loyalty to al Qaeda. Over the years, it has become much more radicalized, furthering the destabilization of central and western Mali. The network has expanded its scheme well past military targets. Instead, they are relatively new actors conducting an economic warfare campaign that affects local governance and supplies in truly crippling ways.
Expanding Territory and Tactics
JNIM, for one, has increasingly sharpened the diversification of its tactics over the past few months, increasing its economic warfare campaigns. This has included setting up checkpoints, extorting local communities through taxation and imposing fuel blockades. The group’s goal seems to be the setting itself up as the possible future alternative ruling-national government.
In neighbouring western Mali, these strategies have shown to be extremely successful. JNIM has attacked factories, industrial facilities including infrastructure projects, and artisanal gold mining sites. These measures break down existing local economies and create greater reliance on the [Islamic State] for protection and livelihood.
“JNIM has become very adept at conveying the discontent and demands of the poorer sections of the population and ethnic minorities,” – Daniele Garofalo
To build civilian support, JNIM takes advantage of local grievances. This strategy strengthens the Malian junta’s hand and in doing so, it further delegitimizes the junta. This kind of approach indicates a great sense and understanding of the very complicated local dynamics which can lead to serious regional instability.
Impacts Beyond Mali’s Borders
JNIM’s impact reaches far beyond Mali, though, as it has consequences for neighboring countries like Burkina Faso and Niger. The group’s capacity to launch attacks across multiple nations raises concerns over potential contagion to areas like northwest Nigeria and Côte d’Ivoire.
At an event recently in Washington, D.C., Edmund Fitton-Brown, the UN expert on the Sahelian security landscape, cautioned against succumbing to the impulse.
“The contagion spreading to Burkina Faso is all but a certainty,” – Edmund Fitton-Brown
He underscored the danger that JNIM could seek to install a government in Bamako more favorable to its goals. Such an outcome would be the case even if JNIM were to not assume full control.
In addition to destabilizing the region, JNIM is ramping up its leverage against the Malian government. Experts fear that if carried out, this plan could make the security situation abysmally worse.
“It is a conflict amid the fluid borders between Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso and there is also a risk of contagion to other states,” – Edmund Fitton-Brown
A Changing Landscape for Mali
This latest surprising turn of events in Mali follows hard on the heels of some major shifts in international support for the Malian government. The country has been plunged into deepening isolation ever since the country expelled French forces. It soured its relations with the UN, as well as with regional forces such as ECOWAS.
“Essentially evicted the French and fell out with both the UN and the regional force ECOWAS. The Russians were never going to be an alternative,” – Fitton-Brown
JNIM’s operations have posed major difficulties for the Malian junta, which is already on shaky ground. The group’s complex ambush on a convoy of Russian contractors alongside Malian soldiers resulted in the deaths of 50 Russians, underscoring their capability to orchestrate deadly strikes against well-armed forces.
JNIM’s spokesperson, Abu Hudheifa al-Bambari, calls for collaboration, in regions controlled by JNIM, with a warning. He warns civilians to avoid communing through their checkpoints and travel with military convoys. This cumulative strategy increases their popular influence and grip on geographic areas. It intends to frighten and intimidate everyone who challenges them.
