In a recent episode of his podcast, On Fire with Jeff Probst, the host and Survivor showrunner addressed a fascinating hypothetical scenario regarding the popular game mechanic known as the Shot in the Dark. Imagine if seven players decided to play their Shot in the Dark at the same Tribal Council. This unprecedented step has the potential to fundamentally change the game.
Probst reassured fans that the production is ready for situations when it’s needed most — where several players might play their Shot in the Dark at once. He made sure to note that there should never be a problem of not having enough scrolls in the bag for however many players you have. “If there are one to six players, then in that bag there will be six scrolls; one will be safe, five are not safe,” Probst noted. Chief to this was his insistence on there being a dozen scrolls for 7-12 players. Of those, just two would currently be considered safe and ten would be deemed unsafe.
The mechanics of the Shot in the Dark continue to make the odds of drawing a safe scroll very low. Importantly, this consistency does not change regardless of how many players choose to engage with it. Probst said the chances of getting a safe scroll are consistently one-in-six. This is still the case even if thirteen or more players choose the Shot in the Dark. “It’s still a one-in-six shot, even with a large number of players,” he said.
Probst showed just how fair and consistent these odds are with a really great analogy. He used as an analogy a giant bag from which thousands of individual scrolls would be pulled. He pointed out that although the odds of getting a specific scroll get better with more players, the one in six odds remain the same the entire time. This system ensures equity among all participants. This ensures that no contestant gets a competitive advantage or disadvantage based on other contestants’ decision to risk it all on this Shot in the Dark component.
Probst is here to set the record straight and help you understand this confusing game mechanic. Unsurprisingly, he focuses on its profound impact during key stretches in the race for the tournament. Yet he recognized these situations are bound to create frustrating scenarios for players and audiences both. “How frustrating would that be: ‘What the heck?!’” he remarked, hinting at the dramatic tension that multiple contestants using their Shot in the Dark could generate during a Tribal Council.
Ultimately, Probst reassured fans and players that Survivor’s game mechanics are designed to maintain fairness and excitement. By ensuring that the odds remain constant, viewers can appreciate the strategic decisions made by contestants when faced with high-stakes situations.
