At the same time, Japan is bracing for a significant population decline. Recent data indicates that the country experienced its largest single-year loss of over 900,000 residents last year. This marks the 16th straight year of population loss. This unprecedented trend has recently raised fears, in some quarters at least, of the country’s demographic doom. By 2009, the population had peaked at 126.6 million. Projections now indicate a further 30% decline by 2070, largely due to persistently low birth rates and an aging population.
Japan, for example, registered only 687,689 newborns in 2022, its lowest since the beginning of records in 1968. By sharp contrast, the total deaths was just under 1.6 million, a new all-time high number of deaths. This disparity has led to a net negative migration, compounding the aging and labor shortage challenges already facing the country.
The share of the total population that is working-age, defined as people ages 15-64, has now dropped to just 59%. Currently, nearly 30% of Japan’s population is age 65 and older. This increasing disparity illuminates a decreasing share of younger adults who are able to have and raise children, enriching our workforce.
Experts cite a variety of reasons for Japan’s birth stampede. They cite the overall cost of living, lack of real wage growth, lack of space to live, and stressful work environment as the main culprits. These factors create a highly intimidating climate for families who want to have children. In spite of these persistent problems, Japan’s government has declared war on population decline for more than 10 years now.
These efforts have included subsidized childbirth and housing, initiatives designed to reverse the tide of a declining population. On top of this, the federal government has been encouraging businesses to introduce paternity leave, which helps families to manage the work–home life divide. Despite this new action, experts are still doubtful these measures will be effective.
Even in the face of these hurdles, there’s a bright spot amid the vaccination rollout. According to recent assessments, “the pace of population decline is expected to slow down slightly, mainly due to the increase in international migration.” Japan is certainly not without its own demographic challenges. Incoming foreign-born residents provide some buoy against the tide of continued contraction.
Until recently, Japan’s foreign resident population was a small but stable minority. Jumping by more than 10% last year alone, it is at an all-time high of 3.6 million people. Such an influx is important not just for making up the gap left by a smaller domestic population, but for fuelling economic growth.
Japan’s government now faces a Herculean task as it tries to turn the tide on these corrosive demographic trends. These challenges are complex, intertwined, and indeed, intricately woven into the fabric of our culture and our economic system. As federal officials pursue other potential solutions, they have recognized that any reversal of this siege on public transportation will take significant time and work.
