Tensions over Iran’s internal political developments have increased significantly over the last few months. With a diverse population exceeding 90 million, Iran includes various ethnic groups, such as Persians, Azeris, Arabs, Baloch, and Kurds. The Islamic Republic, at the helm of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, is at an epic crux. An explanation of the regime change that speculation is already mounting on the impact of should it…
Ali Khamenei has been Supreme Leader since 1989, when the 88-member Assembly of Experts appointed him to the post after the death of his predecessor. His leadership has come under rising criticism, most notably as the protests grow louder and with incendiary demands for change from Iran’s disenfranchised ethnic minorities. The country’s political stability is under threat, with experts warning that Khamenei’s potential demise could lead to a complete regime collapse, further destabilizing an already volatile region.
The campaign to promote and support regime change is gaining traction. This has unpredictable implications for Iran’s fractious multi-ethnic society and the broader regional chessboard. Analysts predict that should the Iranian regime fall, various ethnic groups within the nation may vie for power, leading to potential chaos.
The Ethnic Tapestry of Iran
Iran’s population is a rich tapestry of ethnicities, each contributing to the nation’s culture and history. Among these are over 4 million Arabs, a native minority that has long been subjected to marginalization. Furthermore, Kurds constitute about 10% of the population, mainly living in a long strip on the country’s border with Iraq and Turkey. The Baloch people, speaking the Balochi language, constitute close to 5 million.
Despite its pronounced ethnic diversity, Iran has built consensus enough to enforce their territorial integrity. Underlying tensions persist as marginalized groups seek recognition and representation. The risk of fractiousness and discord is immense. Even if the regime does fall, these groups would almost certainly compete to violently pursue their own interests.
“It’s clear that the current attack is not on Iran, but on the Velayat-e-Faqih (ruling) regime , it is God’s will that the ground has been prepared for us, the people of Iran, to make the best use of this vacuum.” – “Army of Justice” organization
The mythic legacy of Iran’s great civilization makes its current predicament all the more tragic. As one of the world’s oldest continuous civilizations, Iran boasts one of the richest heritages on Earth, imbued deeply in today’s complex social fabric. This legacy does not protect it from present day realities or from future ambitions of its various and vibrant ethnic communities.
The Role of Key Figures in Regime Stability
Ali Khamenei’s leadership has been pivotal in shaping Iran’s political landscape. His tenure has been increasingly beleaguered by challenges from both internal dissenters and outside agitators. These latest remarks from Donald Trump are a reflection of the trend toward popularizing regime change in Iran.
“It’s not politically correct to use the term, ‘Regime Change,’ but if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change??? MIGA!!!” – Donald Trump
Experts are split on what this means and what will happen if such a regime change occurs. Trita Parsi, the executive vice president of the Quincy Institute in Washington, DC, has a more apocalyptic prediction. He seems to think killing Khamenei would set off a total disintegration of Iran’s state-controlled order. He warns that this situation could open the floodgates to anarchy as different groups vie for control.
“Regime collapse is just to collapse the state, and let the chaos that ensues fester.” – Trita Parsi
This feeling is shared by others, who compare it to previous U.S. interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan. Hamed Mousavi cautions against repeating history:
“Look at the experience of Iraq and Afghanistan… Both countries were unstable for many years.” – Hamed Mousavi
Conversations around possible outside interventions continue. Analysts emphasize that with no clear plan to manage the transition, it will be easy and unfortunately likely to exacerbate the already fragile situation.
The Potential Aftermath of Regime Change
If Iran’s regime were to face major reform, several possibilities would present themselves. Others predict a spiral into civil war as ethnic groups use the power void to exploit one another. Fatemeh Haghighatjoo, executive director of the Nonviolent Initiative for Democracy, worries that could happen.
“My main concern is… I see the signs (of) civil war.” – Fatemeh Haghighatjoo
The Mujahadin-e Khalq (MeK) is a dissident group that has found support among some U.S. conservatives. They will seek to capitalize on any disruption that ensues. Their presence further complicates an already dangerous and fluid situation.
Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu has not currently ruled out himself targeting Khamenei directly. He insisted that taking that kind of action would not inflame conflict but instead calm it down.
“Not going to escalate the conflict, it’s going to end the conflict.” – Benjamin Netanyahu
Now, different camps of stakeholders are considering what comes next. This would strongly increase Israeli—and potentially U.S.—support for ethnic separatist groups. This upward trend is especially concerning to those calling for a non-violent transition to democracy in Iran.
The future of Iran is anyone’s guess as internal rivalries and external forces collide. As debates over regime change heat up, decision makers need to consider the costs of such a policy and tread with caution.
“I would like to get rid of this regime. I am the opposition.” – Fatemeh Haghighatjoo
The future of Iran remains uncertain as internal divisions and external pressures converge. As discussions surrounding regime change intensify, stakeholders must weigh the consequences carefully.
