On Tuesday, an Israeli airstrike targeted the powerful head of Iran’s security establishment, a key negotiator and long time associate of Ayatollah Khamenei. For its part, this event has led to furious condemnations from Tehran. The Iranian government has publicly authenticated Larijani’s demise. Yet they highly praised him as the nation’s muscular security chief and one of its most crucial and powerful decision-makers. His death represents the culmination of a growing pattern of Iran’s attrition warfare against Israel and has sparked concerns that hostilities will escalate further.
With Larijani, the commander of Basij, Iran’s notorious paramilitary force, died in the strike. Analysts note Larijani’s extensive experience as a skilled negotiator allowed him to navigate various factions within the Iranian regime and engage with international counterparts effectively. His death will almost certainly soon leave a power vacuum. Most expect Saeed Jalili to move in and assume that function. In addition to his law practice, Jalili has experience as a national security advisor and chief nuclear negotiator. He presently serves on the Expediency Discernment Council.
Iranian leaders on Monday promised to make an “accelerated blow” and increase fire against Israel after Larijani’s assassination. The quick follow-on from the airstrike resulted in two deaths in central Israel as a result of intercepted Iranian missiles. According to eyewitness accounts, debris fell on several major cities in central Israel, including Tel Aviv. At almost the same time, IDF managed to stop a dozen more Iranian missile launches.
“The blood of this exalted martyr and other esteemed martyrs will be avenged,” – Maj. Gen. Amir Hatami
The Iranian government has been keen to make clear its deep intent to retaliate. Maj. Gen. Ali Abdollahi warned that the response would be “more devastating than the actions and imagination of the enemy,” suggesting that Iran’s military strategy is poised for a significant escalation.
While Jalili may step into Larijani’s shoes, analysts express skepticism regarding his ability to replicate Larijani’s adeptness at negotiating across various political factions. His experience in these various roles has made him a respected figure. Many believe he is much less capable of bridging divides and dealing with rivals in Iran’s complicated political ecosystem than his predecessor.
As tensions escalate, Iranian leadership remains defiant. Iran’s Deputy Maj. Gen. Ali Abdollahi urged adversaries to “expect our surprises.” He suggested possible oncoming military action that could increase regional turmoil, actions President Biden must be prepared to counter.
