Iran is now under the threat of renewed American tumult. The nation faces a deep economic crisis, rampant public anger, and the reimposition of UN sanctions in the near future because of its nuclear weapons program. Protests are spreading around the world, fueled by demands for economic justice, gender equity, and accountability in government. As noted last month, citizens are fighting back against the extreme, theocratic government.
Without a doubt, the Iranian economy is in dismal straits. In addition, inflation rates are soaring while the national currency, the rial, continues to plunge to unprecedented lows. This economic crisis exacerbates the pressure on food prices and makes daily life increasingly difficult for ordinary citizens. The government announced a June annual inflation rate of 34.5%. In the interim, real food prices, including basic staples like rice, have soared more than 50%. The outlook is bleak, with food items like rice seeing increases of upward of 80%.
Protests Driven by Economic and Political Grievances
In the past two years, Iran has experienced several countrywide uprisings fueled by a cocktail of socio-economic and political grievances. Citizens have taken to the streets with thousands protesting against government spending and corruption. They are calling for an end to vaccine passports, for improved living conditions and greater freedoms. Many of these demonstrations have centered around women’s rights and calls for a shift away from the country’s conservative theocracy.
As the Iranian people continue to call for basic fundamental freedoms, they are met with an ever more hostile and repressive climate. Activists have noted that “political and civic space in Iran has shrunk to nothing,” reflecting the government’s tightening grip on dissent. This repression doesn’t stop at the national border, as we often see civil society activists and dissidents facing transnational repression.
“For as long as I can remember, we’ve been struggling with economic hardship, and every year it’s worse than the last.” – Sina
According to Dr. Sima Ferdowsi, it’s ongoing economic decline that presents the most dangerous obstacles. She fears it would result in disastrous social and moral outcomes. All of these factors contribute to a boiling, and sometimes dangerous, sense of urgency from constituents. They dream of a freer, more democratic society.
The Iranian economy is bracing for even deeper havoc. Now the UN is about to reimpose sanctions that were suspended in exchange for Iran curbing its destabilizing nuclear program. Iran has maintained that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes. Western countries and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) argue that Tehran had a formal nuclear weapons program up until 2003. Following Israel’s declared war with Iran in June, Iran responded by completely withdrawing its cooperation from the IAEA. This has raised red flags across the country about nuclear enforcement.
Economic Crisis Heightened by Sanctions
As sanctions approach, Iran’s national currency, the rial, plummets on a near-daily basis, drastically affecting the daily lives of Iranian citizens. The cost of all those essential items have increased dramatically. For instance, the price of whole chickens would increase 26% while lamb and beer each would increase by 9%. Rice, a deeply ingrained symbol of sustenance in Iranian households, recently increased by more than 80% on average, with premium varieties reaching as high as 100%.
The resulting economic turmoil has been especially hard on women and the youth, leaving millions of Iranians feeling hopeless and trapped. Millions of Iranians are hopeful for new options to the “closed and brutal theocracy” they consider oncoming. The persistent protests testify to these hopes for reform, but to an increasing rift between the government and its people.
Iran–Western relations are on the verge of exploding. In an immediate reaction, the Iranian government has recalled its ambassadors from France, Germany and U.K. for consultations ahead of the forthcoming sanctions. Diplomatic efforts seem increasingly tenuous as each side blunders through an intricate obstacle course laid out in the seething terrain of deep-seated reciprocal animosity.
A Complex International Landscape
Kelsey Davenport, an expert on nuclear nonproliferation, commented on the precarious situation:
With talks collapsing, many US and Arab observers are worried about the impact this could have on regional stability. The possibility of a return to violent conflict looms large. Meanwhile, Iran maintains a growing stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% purity – just one technical step away from enrichment to weapons grade levels.
“Given the knowledge Iran has, given the materials that remain in Iran, that’s a very dangerous assumption.” – Kelsey Davenport
Davenport further remarked on the risks associated with reduced oversight:
“In the short term, kicking out the IAEA increases the risk of miscalculation. The U.S. or Israel could use the lack of inspections as a pretext for further strikes.” – Kelsey Davenport
As negotiations falter, many observers remain concerned about the potential consequences for regional stability. The specter of renewed conflict looms large as Iran maintains a stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% purity — just a technical step away from weapons-grade levels.
