As Germany prepares for a pivotal election on February 23, 2024, the political landscape is charged with anticipation and uncertainty. With 630 parliamentary seats up for grabs, the outcome of the election will shape the country's course on critical issues such as economic policy and immigration. The main opposition, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), are leading the polls with 29 percent voter support, while the right-wing Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) holds 21 percent of the vote share. Incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz is seeking re-election amidst criticism over his handling of economic matters.
The German electoral system places significant emphasis on the second vote, which ultimately determines the number of seats each party will hold in the Bundestag. This aspect of voting is crucial as it reflects the party's strength within government. As election night unfolds, this second vote will be closely monitored, with initial results expected to start pouring in shortly after polling stations close at 6pm local time.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz faces a challenging political climate as he campaigns for another term. His approval ratings have diminished, with only 31 percent of the population expressing satisfaction with his leadership, according to Statista. Critics point to his economic policies as a primary concern, with many questioning his ability to lead Germany through financial uncertainties.
The debate over Germany's constitutionally enshrined debt brake—a mechanism designed to limit public borrowing—remains a hot topic in this election. Calls for reform to allow increased public spending have met resistance from parties like the AfD and the Free Democratic Party (FDP), who staunchly defend the current fiscal limits.
Amidst these discussions, Friedrich Merz, leader of the CDU, has expressed a cautious approach towards any alterations to Germany's fiscal policies.
"I have always said that you can discuss this, but definitely not at first," said Friedrich Merz.
Merz emphasizes the importance of exploring other financial avenues before considering reforms.
"First comes the savings potential, growth and also the budget reallocations that are urgently needed," he added.
The issue of immigration continues to be a divisive topic in German politics. The AfD has taken a hardline stance, advocating for closed borders and the removal of family reunification rights for asylum seekers. In contrast, the Green Party remains committed to an open-door asylum policy, supporting state-backed sea rescue operations and promoting refugee integration into society.
Borbath, an analyst observing the political climate, commented on the rising influence of the AfD in immigration discourse.
"I think, in that sense, the effect of the AfD is much more visible than in the policy-making process … this normalization of AfD, of immigration critical voices that were previously mostly linked to the AfD, [is] becoming much more widespread and normalized and taken over also by centre-left or left-wing forces," Borbath noted.
Germany's role on the international stage also plays a significant part in this election. The nation ranks as the second-highest supporter of Ukraine’s war efforts after the United States, having provided approximately 7.1 billion euros ($7.4 billion) in military assistance in 2024. This commitment has sparked debate among political factions, with some advocating for continued support and others questioning its impact on national resources.
Furthermore, the AfD has stirred controversy with its proposals to abandon the euro and potentially exit the European Union—radical measures that underscore their nationalist agenda. The AfD's vision for Germany's future extends beyond economic policies, highlighting a desire to redefine its place within Europe.
Friedrich Merz has articulated his determination to counteract extremist influences within German politics.
He aims to "make the party as small as possible," reflecting his commitment to diminishing their impact.
