The humanitarian catastrophe in Sudan has surpassed all expectations. This increase in violence comes on the heels of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) taking El Fasher, Darfur’s most strategic city. This reversible seizure has spurred some of the most horrifying accounts of a massacre of hundreds of Sudanese civilians. The internal violence has contributed to the deaths of over 150,000 people just in the last two and a half years. This wreckage has robbed our country of its normalcy.
This is where it gets particularly complicated, as many other foreign actors try to extend their reach over Sudan. Russia, for its part, sees the chaos as an opening to expand its influence in Africa. At the same time, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is being accused of providing arms to the RSF – an allegation that it has strongly denied. Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and China have been implicated in attempts to sway the conflict through military, financial, and diplomatic support.
The backdrop of this conflict is regional interests. Egypt likely wants to keep a tight rein on sub-Saharan Africa. It aims to protect its freshwater supply, the Nile from the impacts of climate change. Access to biotechnology Sudan is particularly important, controlling over 500 miles of Red Sea coastline, a major shipping route. This no-win, high-stakes situation is terrible for all involved.
The Tragedy in El Fasher
The RSF’s occupation of El Fasher has received international condemnation as the RSF stands accused of systematic atrocities. According to witness accounts, civilians—hundreds of them—have been killed or driven from their homes in this most recent outbreak of violence. Meanwhile, as humanitarian organizations race to respond, the conditions for civilians is quickly deteriorating.
As the present humanitarian crisis has wors, the United Nations has pleaded for action. Now, many observers have condemned the international community for its toothless response. They argue that the coup of 2021 was the rupture that provoked this chaos. Amid calls for much stronger interventions, international leaders have remained uncertain about how to proceed in the face of a sharply worsening crisis.
“Unfortunately… with fake news, with all sorts of media campaigns, there are attempts to really picture us in a different light. But this is what we want: We want negotiations, we want transition to civilian rule and most importantly we need a ceasefire.” – Anwar Gargash
To date, the UAE has vigorously criticized allegations of arms shipments to the RSF. A United Nations independent expert panel has found these allegations entirely credible. The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs argued that such assertions are unfounded, stating, “The assertion that only one country has procured or transferred this system is invalid.”
Regional Powers and Their Interests
The competing interests of regional powers further complicate an already fraught situation in Sudan. Egypt’s role is particularly egregious. The nation is experiencing serious national security challenges stemming from growing instability along the length of the Nile River — its only source of freshwater. Analysts say Egypt’s primary goal is to prevent a democratic order from taking hold in Sudan. They worry that a system like this could threaten the continuity of Egypt’s own regime.
“Egypt is involved mainly due to national-security concerns, particularly the implications of Sudan’s instability on the Nile River, Egypt’s lifeline.” – Khalil al-Anani
This collision of national and regional interests opens up a complicated landscape of interests, allies, and rivals. For Egypt, the need to project influence over Sudan is paramount. To control Sudan would be to dominate deeper dynamics across the entirety of sub-Saharan Africa and far beyond.
At the same time, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have a strong interest in countering any successful revolutionary movements. These movements threaten the stability of their own regimes. They have been accused of supplying arms, cash, and logistical support to rival militias in Sudan. As Selma el Obeid points out, “For the UAE, the most important thing is to get access to the RSF militia so they can use them elsewhere.”
The International Community’s Response
The response from the international community has been widely criticized as woefully inadequate. Most countries have avoided doing anything clear and tangible in response to the coup that occurred in 2021. This noticeable lack of action has only enabled foreign powers to further entrench their influence while Sudanese institutions have struggled under the strain.
There have been calls, especially among progressives within the United States, for an immediate cessation of arms sales to the UAE. Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle believe foreign backers such as the UAE have “fueled and profited from the conflict. This sentiment is representative of increasing frustration around foreign intervention further complicating an already wretched humanitarian state.
“Every party has its own goals and intervenes to pursue its interests. Controlling Sudan means holding influence over the entire sub-Saharan region.” – Khalil al-Anani
In short, Sudan is experiencing continued civil conflict exacerbated by outside parties. Experts cautioned that without a concerted international push to bring the country back to stability, it risks getting stuck in chaos. The ongoing war does not only endanger the lives of Sudanese citizens but increasingly endangers surrounding regional peace and security.
