Dolphin School in Montpelier faces potential closure due to a significant drop in birth rates across Bristol. Opened in 2012, the school might see its students transferred to nearby Fairlawn Primary if current plans proceed. Both institutions fall under the management of the E-ACT academy trust, highlighting the interconnected nature of educational planning in the area.
Bristol City Council reports a 30% decline in birth rates from 2012 to 2023, creating challenges in predicting future school place demands. This situation necessitates a strategic approach to forecast needs, especially concerning secondary and sixth form places. The city is currently experiencing high demand for secondary education, contrasting with the early 2000s when a surge in younger children required more reception places, a phenomenon dubbed "the bulge."
Projections suggest that Dolphin School's enrollment could plummet to as low as 150 by 2027, down from over 250 in the 2022/23 academic year. E-ACT warns that maintaining the school with such diminished numbers may prove unsustainable. Reverend Steve Chalke, founder of the Oasis charitable trust, which is building a new school alongside the Feeder Canal at Temple Quarter, acknowledges the complexity of fluctuating birth rates.
"We know our birth rates in the city, but obviously children move in and they move out. However, when you use your birth rates, you can see (the numbers) coming out of the maternity hospitals," Reverend Steve Chalke remarked.
"Of course we're not always going to be spot on, but largely it is possible to plan strategically for school places," he added.
In recent years, Bristol has seen other schools shuttered due to declining numbers. St Pius X primary school closed in 2021, followed by St Barnabas two years later. Christine Townsend, chair of the authority's Children and Young People Committee, advocates for repurposing such buildings rather than demolition.
"The main aim is to keep our schools open wherever possible, because we know that the birth rate will go back up and therefore those places will be needed again," Christine Townsend emphasized.
Meanwhile, eligible Dolphin School children are currently attending a temporary site in Bedminster. Huw Illingworth expressed concern over losing established educational institutions and noted the trend of converting former school buildings into other uses.
"I think that the sadness for me is we will lose two schools in this area, particularly losing St Barnabas, which was a long-established school," Illingworth stated.
"What's happened is local authorities have sold off school buildings because they've not been needed and wonderful Victorian buildings have become luxury flats or used for other purposes or demolished," he continued.
"And then you get a boom again and then you just don't have the space."
