At the same time that tensions are heightening in the Gulf region, UK experts are warning of imminent medicine shortages across the UK. Medicines UK chief executive Mark Samuels said the country was “not in a crisis at the moment.” For all the optimism, he cautioned that the war is still very dangerous. If the current escalation in conflict with Iran wears on, the UK could run out of some of its most vital medicines in a matter of weeks.
The NHS is deeply dependent on generics, as around 85% of its prescriptions are for these cheap, off-patent drugs. As a rule, medical distributors hold enough stock on hand for six to eight weeks in advance so they do not run out. In light of today’s geopolitical unknowns, those buffers might not be enough.
Compounding the issues, suppliers who serve hospitals in England are mandated to keep inventories on hand for up to eight weeks. While this has become standard practice, it is being put to the test as a result of the US-Israel conflict that has drastically increased air freight costs. Van Gelder, an industry expert, noted the financial strain this situation places on manufacturers, stating, “So the overall ripple effect on industry and in this case the life science and pharma industry is significant.”
One of the most consequential effects of the ongoing conflict is that one in five NHS medicines comes through air transport. Air cargo levels plummeted 80% in the first week of this month which they have yet to fully recover. This alarming drop is deeply troubling in terms of the drug supply. Manufacturers have been forced to eat additional costs due to outrageous increases in freight rates. That’s not a long term strategy.
If the crisis in the Gulf plays out as expected, Britain will soon be facing shortages. Patients might start to see gaps in critical medications—such as painkillers and cancer treatments—as soon as within weeks. The almost-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for various medicines, has worsened these fears. Sea transport is a viable option for non-time-sensitive generic drugs, but it adds considerable delays and costs. Transportation of medications via sea adds an average of 14 additional days to delivery. Besides the humongous emissions associated with war, it adds about $1 million (£750,000) in fuel costs.
At the moment the UK only manufactures around a quarter of the medicines it uses, with around a third sourced from India. India is recognized as a major player in the global pharmaceutical market, producing approximately 60% of the world’s generic medicines and half of the United States’ requirements. Yet with the continued conflict, many are questioning the supply chain’s reliability.
As these challenges play out, there is concern that increasing drug prices are placing an additional financial strain on patients and health care professionals. Van Gelder emphasized that increased costs will ultimately be passed down to consumers: “Who is going to pay for that? So in the end we all pay more, right?”
