On May 7, India raised the stakes on Pakistan by intensifying its own military campaign. Under the guise of combating terrorism, it carried out missile attacks against Pakistani and Pakistani-controlled Kashmiri targets. The Indian government maintains that these attacks were intended to eliminate “terrorist infrastructure.” This response comes on the heels of a deadly attack in Indian-administered Kashmir that left 26 people dead on April 22. The military operation is seen as the biggest level of action since the two countries last fought a full-scale war in 1971. Yet, it is calling attention to the risk of a broader war in the region.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has made much of its resolve to tackle terrorism with a heavy hand. Following the Pahalgam attack, Modi vowed to “identify, trace, and punish every terrorist and their backers.” The missile strikes have raised concerns of additional escalation. At the same time, India has suspended its participation in dispute resolution mechanisms under the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), threatening Pakistan’s water security.
The Scope of the Attacks
The cross-border missile strikes, which struck six different cities across Pakistan, killing at least eight civilians, including two children. The areas hit included Muzaffarabad and Kotli in Pakistan-administered Kashmir. In addition, Bahawalpur, Muridke, Sialkot and Shakar Garh too in Punjab made it to the list. Notably, these strikes mark a significant shift in India’s military strategy, as it has not targeted Punjab—Pakistan’s economic heartland—since the last war.
Military analysts describe these actions as “the most intense levels of Indian military actions we’ve seen in Pakistan for quite a few years now.” The attacks principally affect the rural areas of Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, which encompasses a majority Muslim area of Indian-administered Kashmir. Going further in Pakistani territory, then, carries different escalation risks.
Domestic and International Implications
India also faces great domestic pressure for a strong retaliatory response to terrorist provocations. Michael Kugelman, an expert on South Asian affairs, stated, “There was a high level of pressure on Modi to respond with muscle.” Such feelings tend to harmonize with Modi’s own image of himself as a strong leader committed to fighting terrorism in a more effective manner.
The Indian government has constructed a narrative of restraint for foreign audiences, while projecting strength on the home front. Praveen Donthi remarked, “This moment aligns with India’s self-projection as a strong security state with zero tolerance for terrorism.” Such steps are sure to bring home political blessings for Modi’s government, especially among his nationalist base.
Rasheed Kidwai noted that “India is retaliating in a precise manner,” further emphasizing the calculated nature of these military strikes. The threat of a wider regional instability hangs heavily as India strikes a more hawkish stance against real or imagined threats allegedly posed by adversary Pakistan.
The Road Ahead
With tensions continuing to rise between India and Pakistan, their militaries are still prepared for anything. India’s recent military actions represent a major break from India’s longstanding counter-terrorism policy. They bring alarming concerns about the risk that a larger conflict may further destabilize the entire region.
The international community remains on the edge of their seat as both countries tread these dangerous waters. Experts caution that one wrong move could set off an unintended spiral to a much more destructive clash. This threat jeopardizes not only regional security, but global stability.
