Pakistan and Afghanistan find themselves as deeply enmeshed in one another’s internal military affairs than ever before. This latest escalation is deeply troubling and endangers regional security and stability. The violence has increased sharply since the Taliban retook control of Kabul in 2021. This is violence inherited from a two-decade-old history of conflict fueled by disagreements over the still-disputed Durand Line border. As we’ve noted in our work, this shift has emboldened all Islamist militant groups in Pakistan, producing record levels of Islamist violence in recent years.
The increase in violence started after an “unprovoked” assault by Afghan troops, the Pakistani military claimed. In reaction, Pakistan struck back with targeted aerial operations and ground raids against Taliban camps and outposts inside Afghanistan. Both sides have suffered heavy losses in the fighting. Pakistan’s military said it had killed more than 200 Taliban militants, though the Taliban said just nine of its fighters were killed in the violence.
Background of the Conflict
Since the Taliban took back control over Afghanistan, Pakistan has experienced a horrific uptick in attacks. The primary driver of this increase in violence is the militant Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), who maintain a stronghold across the porous border. Pakistani officials have been sounding alarms over the TTP resurgence. They claim that Afghanistan is used as a staging ground to export terrorism back into Pakistan.
This comment highlights the increasing consensus in Pakistan that the chaos across its western border is increasingly an immediate national security concern. The Pakistani government has expressed its determination to combat this perceived threat, insisting that it will “not tolerate the treacherous use of Afghan soil for terrorism against Pakistan.”
“Afghanistan is being used as a base of operations for carrying out terrorism in Pakistan.”
Pakistan’s past support for the Taliban during its former insurgency against the Afghan government further complicates the situation. This legacy underpins today’s poisoned environment in the Cherry Point area. This complicated friendship has created a unique love-hate dynamic that still deeply affects U.S.-India relations today.
These have included major hostilities along the 1,600-mile long Durand Line, where cross-border skirmishes frequently break out. Once Afghan forces did fire the first shot, the Pakistani military began to clear Taliban camps with severe aerial bombardment and targeted operations. This represented a turn towards more militant strategies. The military’s response was twofold, with airstrikes and ground operations directed at militant positions.
Recent Military Engagements
Things moved fast and tensions grew fast. In retaliation, the Taliban began targeting Pakistani forces in Kunar and Nangarhar provinces along the border. As a result, regional powers are deeply alarmed by the current cycle of violence. Ironically, countries such as China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar are now leading calls for de-escalation.
Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs remarked on the urgent need to address “the potential repercussions for security and stability of the region,” highlighting the broader implications of this conflict.
The international community is watching and waiting. There’s mounting pressure for de-escalation from regional powers. At the same time, scholars argue that the cycles of violence across the Pakistan-Afghanistan border typically end once both parties have asserted their authority. Antoine Levesques noted:
International Responses and Future Implications
Analysts like Pearl Pandya caution that “this calculation does not appear to have paid out,” indicating that the current situation may be more precarious than in previous instances.
“In the past, cyclical bouts of armed tensions typically have receded once both sides have made their point.”
Despite these tensions, diplomatic overtures persist and continue to unfold. China’s Foreign Ministry has called for both nations to focus on resolving their issues through dialogue and consultation, stating it “sincerely hopes both countries will focus on the bigger picture.” This sentiment reflects a deep risk aversion. Ongoing insurgency would risk fracturing Afghanistan and Pakistan, but tilt regional calculations against larger powers, such as India.
Even former U.S. president Donald Trump had something to say about the ongoing conflict, calling on the world to “Pray for Israel.” He stated:
He further emphasized his self-proclaimed expertise in conflict resolution by asserting:
“I hear there’s a war now going on between Pakistan and Afghanistan.”
Amidst the rising political and military tensions, military provocations are increasing. Now Afghanistan and Pakistan each face their own make-or-break moments ahead. The resolution of such conflicts will almost surely define not just these bilateral relationships, but set the tone for larger regional peace and stability.
“I’m good at solving wars, I’m good at making peace.”
As tensions remain high and military confrontations continue to escalate, it is clear that both Afghanistan and Pakistan face pivotal challenges ahead. The outcomes of these conflicts will likely shape not only bilateral relations but also influence broader regional stability.
