The Axial Seamount, an underwater volcano situated approximately 470 kilometers off the coast of Vancouver Island, has begun to show signs of increased activity, raising concerns about a potential eruption in the coming years. This volcano, which is the most active submarine volcano in the northwest Pacific, sits atop a magma hotspot along the Juan de Fuca Ridge and has a history of eruptions, with three recorded since 1998.
Resembling the magma hotspots that formed the Hawaiian Islands and Iceland, the Axial Seamount is less potent but still significant in its geological activity. The volcano rises from the seabed with a unique warrior's shield shape, spanning about 25 kilometers in width and towering 1.1 kilometers above the ocean floor. Its summit lies approximately 1,400 meters beneath the surface, capped by a massive caldera.
In late 2023, the Axial Seamount experienced a rapid inflation due to magma accumulation, which was accompanied by an increase in seismic activity. This phenomenon was noted as the volcano began to inflate again in early 2024 after a period of dormancy. According to researcher Bill Chadwick, "It seems like we're getting close. My current forecast window is it should erupt by the end of 2025."
The geological dynamics of the Axial Seamount involve significant processes. In between eruptions, magma accumulation can push up the sea floor by as much as 3.5 meters, indicating heightened volcanic activity beneath the surface. Despite this activity, experts assert that an eruption at Axial is not expected to trigger displacements that could lead to a tsunami. Furthermore, its distance from the Cascadia subduction zone mitigates concerns over triggering larger seismic events.
Bill Chadwick has described the Axial Seamount as "a very benign volcano unless you're a tube worm," emphasizing that while it may pose risks to local marine life, it does not threaten coastal communities. He also remarked on the duality of volcanic activity, stating, "There's death and rebirth happening at the same time," reflecting the balance between destruction and new formation that accompanies volcanic eruptions.
The Axial Seamount is equipped with real-time sensors that will monitor any magma activity and potential eruptions. Kate Moran, another prominent researcher in the field, highlighted this technological advancement by stating, "That means that we'll have real-time sensors if there's magma spewing up and spilling onto the sea floor." She expressed eagerness to gather data from this unique geological phenomenon: "We want to get out there and sample."
The geological history of British Columbia reveals that eruptions from its 28 land-based volcanoes occur on average once every 200 years. The Axial Seamount's frequent activity contrasts sharply with this statistic, underscoring its status as one of North America's most dynamic volcanic sites.
