In an upset victory, Daniel Noboa has emerged as the winner of the presidential election in Ecuador. His victory represents a further and quite historic shift towards right-wing governance in South America. His election is particularly poignant given the current tendency of regional conservative leaders to seek inspiration from US President Donald Trump. Noboa’s victory marks a significant moment for Ecuador, particularly as he navigates complex relationships with both leftist leaders and indigenous political movements within the country.
His strong anti-organized crime message, delivered in the context of an unfolding general insecurity crisis hitting all of Ecuador resonated with voters, including Noboa’s campaign on that front. His seemingly irreversible confirmation of the US dollar as Ecuador’s official currency has been a pillar of his platform. As he prepares to assume office, Noboa faces the challenge of an incoming divided Congress. Simultaneously, he is in a position to redefine Ecuador’s international relations landscape, most strikingly with the United States.
Election Victory and Political Landscape
Daniel Noboa’s recent election victory is the latest manifestation of a regional tide as right-wing parties sweep the continent. He ended up winning by a wide margin. This victory gives him a strong mandate as a leader well-placed to address national priorities, particularly security issues linked to organized crime. He’s been able to do this because he speaks directly to voters on the most urgent issues. Consequently, analysts view his win as reflective of an overall turn to the right across the region.
Yet the political landscape is changing rapidly. For the first time in twenty years, Congress is not under the thumb of Correísmo, the faction associated with former President Rafael Correa. Jaime Durán Barba, a political analyst, emphasized this shift by stating, “a huge change in Ecuadorian politics since the first-round elections, where for the first time a large block that is not Correísmo and is not from Revolución Ciudadana appears in Congress.”
Noboa’s relationship with indigenous movements, especially the Pachakutik Movement, presents yet another complicating factor for Noboa’s administration. While many hope these alliances will help solidify his congressional majority, others warn that these deputies will focus on leveraging local indigenous interests.
Navigating International Relations
While Noboa gets ready to take office, it is unclear where his relationships will lie with the continent’s leftist leaders. His frequent engagements with Colombian President Gustavo Petro and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum are under extreme fire. This begs the question of how he will manage these competing relationships and continue to serve US interests in the region.
In early April, Noboa met with Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago, signaling his intention to strengthen ties with the United States. Ruth Hidalgo, a political expert, commented on this alignment, stating, “Indeed, what we have seen is a president very close to the United States government and very leveraged on the possibility that the United States government provides assistance at the security level.”
Noboa has already moved to reestablish military agreements between Ecuador and the US. In parallel, he introduced a partial constitutional amendment to change existing prohibitions on foreign military bases in Ecuador. Changes like these are clearly movements of Noboa’s to establish the direction of Ecuador’s security partnerships, even as he looks to balance domestic and international expectations.
Economic Policies and the Path Forward
One of the main pillars of Noboa’s campaign was his strong support for dollarization, an issue that has sharply divided Ecuadorian voters. He reiterated in an executive order last March that the US dollar would continue to be Ecuador’s sole official means of payment. This approach has raised alarm and praise from different quarters of the electorate.
Paola Cabezas made a case for an “Ecuadorian” way of dollarization, focusing on the specific national issues that affect decisions on monetary policy. At the same time, political outsider Luisa González called on voters to not be fooled by dollarization’s promises of greater economic security and prosperity. His capacity to channel and soothe these sentiments will be crucial as he now looks to govern.
As Noboa begins his term, he faces a divided Congress elected last February. Nevertheless, this deep division may lead to formidable challenges to his unconventional style of governance. As political analyst Eduardo Gamarra noted, when there is a stalemate with Congress, too often executive powers rule by decree. He proposes that Noboa could use this playbook given the unique political environment today.
