And the condo market in major Canadian cities, like Toronto and Vancouver, has seen a sudden collapse as sales have collapsed and inventories have climbed. In the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), condo apartment sales have fallen off a cliff, down an astounding 75 percent since 2022. At the same time, Vancouver hit an equally historic low — sales plummeted 37 percent over the same period. This huge reduction in activity has posed serious obstacles for would-be move-up buyers. Most of them believe they are stuck in the condos they own because their appreciation hopes have dried up.
The supply of condos in the GTA and Vancouver has more than doubled since then. Consequently, prices are dropping. Realtor.ca Last month across Greater Vancouver, there were just 1,040 sales of condos. This figure is an eyebrow-raising 16.5 percent decrease from June 2024. Even those in the know, including experts and real estate agents, are dubbing this continual downturn as “brutal” and “scary.” Homeowners wanting to make an upgrade are reeling from this perfect storm.
Current Market Trends
According to the latest numbers, condo sales in Greater Vancouver have fallen 2.5 percent from a year ago. At the same time, detached house sales decreased by 5.3 percent from June of 2024. Attached houses experienced faster growth in sales, increasing 3.7 percent. Additional data just released shows a very negative confluence of factors for the condo market. For example, in just the month of May, condo sales were down 25.1 percent, significantly more than other housing categories.
Adil Dinani is a Vancouver-based real estate agent with Royal LePage West Real Estate Services. He provided tons of useful industry information on the state of the condo market. He noted that a significant proportion of sellers have chosen to press the sell button, even if it means taking a loss on their condos. Sadly, they’ve decided to grow up and move away rather than wait. In doing so, he highlighted the dangerous lack of liquidity in the market. This challenge prevents would-be Move-Up/Trade transaction buyers from reallocating the available capital in their pockets accordingly.
“There’s a lack of liquidity in the condo market, so that’s preventing potential move-up buyers from reallocating that money.” – Adil Dinani
Seller Challenges and Buyer Hesitations
At a recent open house on the East Side Vy Ngo, an agent with Big City Realty Inc., expressed Dinani’s frustrations by talking about the challenges sellers face. She added that most sellers are still stuck on inflated price hopes, which undercuts their chances of selling successfully. “I have multiple condo listings right now. It’s very difficult to sell,” she stated.
These rapidly changing dynamics have still created some buyer confusion on what they should be doing next. The dream of being able to use condo appreciation to make bigger down payments has disappeared for many. They wanted to bet on the condo’s value increasing over the next few years so they could cash that out and use that as a down payment to move up into a bigger home. The funds are simply not available,” Ngo said.
Dinani emphasized that many sellers are still highly motivated, flexible and receptive to pricing conversations. He remarked, “Some sellers are open-minded and are in a position where they want to sell and they’re committed to selling.” Those who cling too tightly to ex-ante price expectations will face challenges. As such, Dinani suggests they “hit the brakes and find alternatives.”
Future Outlook
Victor Tran, a mortgage and real estate expert for Rates.ca, provided insight into the broader implications for potential move-up buyers. He described this moment as a “terrifying time” to be a homebuyer. Tran raised concerns about market recovery, asking when would confidence come back.
“OK, when are we going to hit the bottom, when are we going to see some recovery and confidence put back into the market?” – Victor Tran
Tran’s perspective indicates that positive recovery will take a long time to come. In response, he stated, “I don’t anticipate that’s going to be anytime soon.” This of course means that purchasers should prepare for continuing difficulties.
